In order to be confident in your opinions heading into the draft, you have to ignore how horrendously awful both the NFL and draft analysts are at determining which quarterbacks will be good in the NFL. When we look back through history, it’s daunting how many clubs either thought they had QB1 for the future in the draft and then that player bombed or how many great quarterbacks slipped through the cracks.
The first such incident of a club blowing their QB decision in the draft in the modern NFL happened right after the NFL-AFL merger. The 49ers thought Steve Spurrier could be the man to guide them to greatness. So they took him with the third overall pick rather than Bob Griese. He was taken with the fourth selection. Spurrier started 38 career games and won 13. Griese was an eight-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl winner and earned a gold jacket.
Scouting remained flawed into the 70s when the Cardinals took Steve Pisarkiewicz over Tommy Kramer in the first round of the 1977 draft. Pisarkiewicz appeared in four NFL games. Kramer started 114.
The Bengals took Jack Thompson third overall in the 1979 draft. He finished his career 4-17. Two QBs taken after him in the same draft, Phil Simms and Joe Montana, had slightly better results.
Oh, 1983. Dear 1983. You magical 1983. The Chiefs picked Todd Blacklege over Jim Kelly and the Patriots took Tony Eason over Dan Marino.
In 1985 the NFL let Randall Cunningham drop to the second round. In 1988 the first QB off the board became a punter. That’s not a joke.
Some choices in 1991 would have long-term implications. Dan McGwire and Todd Mirinovich went ahead of Brett Favre.
The following year Brad Johnson became the best QB out of 20 of them taken. He was a ninth-round pick.
The Colts nailed the ‘98 draft with legend Peyton Manning. The Chargers, not so much. They took one of the biggest busts ever in Ryan Leaf while mid-rounders Brian Griese and Matt Hasselbeck became good NFL starters.
Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper was a particularly bad choice for the Browns in ‘99.
Have you heard that Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick?
You’d think at some point modern scouting and data would start pushing the odds in the NFL’s favor but they kept bumbling along. In 2012 Russell Wilson was too short to be taken over Brandon Weeden. Mitch Trubisky went ahead of Patrick Mahomes in 2017. In 2018, every team in the league including the Ravens passed on two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.
Then there’s quite possibly the most ironic QB drafting in history. The 49ers traded the house to acquire Trey Lance in 2021, only to have a seventh-rounder Brock Purdy from the 2022 draft become the QB who led them to the Super Bowl.
Not that they get it wrong every time. Terry Bradshaw as the No. 1 pick in 1970 alright. So did John Elway, Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. The Chiefs sure enjoy telling everyone how they targeted Patrick Mahomes for years before trading up for him.
There are as many magical steals at QB as there are busts, including the Vikings getting Culpepper at 11th overall.
Which side will the Vikings be on this year? Who knows. There’s nothing more interesting than diving into which quarterbacks succeeded and failed and trying to learn lessons about the future from those busts and steals but every player and every situation is so vastly different that we will never really know the answers until they are already under center.
Is the lesson here to be scared straight that the bad luck boogie man is going to bite the Vikings? Or that whichever quarterback the Vikings take on draft night has a chance to be the best QB in the class? Who knows.
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