Every year when the Minnesota Vikings arrive at training camp there are tons of questions that we expect to be answered along the way. Now that we have the full picture of the 2023 season, here’s how some of the most pressing issues that we identified in July ended up playing out…
Preseason question: Will 2022’s good luck carry over?
Answer: A billion percent no
Following the Vikings since Kevin O’Connell took over has been whiplash on fans. In 2022 the Vikings were the Good Luck Darlings of the NFL with a healthy roster and a one-score game record that may never be repeated again. In 2023, the injury bug bit hard with both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson each missing half the season and the Vikings finished third in fumbles lost and receivers dropped 10 more passes than last year and they went 6-8 in one-score games.
All of that doesn’t even begin to describe it. Jefferson reaching out over the goal line and fumbling out of the back of the end zone cost them a lead at half in Philly. TJ Hockenson’s drop in the end zone cost them a win over the Chargers. A picked-up flag cost them against the Chiefs. A fumble in Broncos territory sparked Denver’s comeback. A shanked punt against the Bears opened the door for a game-winning drive. An underthrown ball toward a wide open Jefferson got them versus the Lions. And on and on…
The luck pendulum didn’t just swing back the other way against the Vikings, it hit them with Thor’s hammer.
Preseason question: Will Kirk Cousins take another step in Year 2 under Kevin O’Connell?
Answer: Mostly yes
By the numbers, Cousins’ first eight games were terrific. He was on pace to push for 5,000 yards passing and had a 103.8 quarterback rating. Was he really playing the “best football of his career” though? That would be a bold statement.
The Vikings played from behind often in the early stages of the season, which leads to defenses playing softer. When trailing Cousins threw 161 passes and posted 1,202 yards, 12 TDs and 2 INTs with a 109.8 QB rating. When tied or ahead he threw 150 passes with 1,029 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs and 96.8 rating. That isn’t to say he was playing poorly by any stretch. His victories against the 49ers and Packers were spectacular, especially considering the team was without Jefferson.
Cousins seemed more in tune with the offense and it didn’t hurt that the team’s pass blocking put together its best stretch of his tenure. But there may have been some regression on the way. Against pressure Cousins produced a 104.4 QB rating, about 20 points higher than at any other point in his career.
Still, the Vikings faced a lot of mediocre pass defenses down the stretch and the veteran quarterback would have gotten Jefferson back in the lineup and had a chance to post some of his best career numbers. It’s safe to say that he wasn’t a wildly different QB than 2022 but did take a step forward in the offense.
Preseason question: Will Jordan Addison create a top-notch receiving duo with Justin Jefferson?
Answer: 100% yes
Addison’s rookie season was a dream scenario for the Vikings. He gained the third most yards among all rookie receivers and took charge when Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury. While he dropped in the first round of the draft because he is undersized, Addison remained healthy for the entire season playing all 17 games. He established himself as a threat as a deep and intermediate receiver, which will be a nightmare for opponents to deal with. Unfortunately for the Vikings they only had a handful of games to demonstrate just how effective Jefferson and Addison can be together because of JJ’s injury. But this tandem (assuming JJ signs an extension) is set to drive defenses insane for many years to come.
Preseason question: Will the Vikings find their RB1?
Answer: Not exactly but maybe
The Vikings went into training camp with Alexander Mattison as the clear-cut starter and hope that either Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu would emerge as a change-of-pace back. Mattison led the team with 700 yards rushing but finished the season as the backup to Chandler, who finished the year with 460 yards at 4.5 yards per carry. He also caught 21 passes at 7.6 yards per reception. Overall as a rushing attack they were 29th in rushing yards and 20th in rushing Expected Points Added.
Chandler showed potential to take on the starting role next season, though carrying the ball 100 times in a season is different than a full-time RB1 workload. They should be pleased with the direction of Chandler but it’s likely that another running back will be part of the mix next year.
Preseason question: How will Brian Flores impact the Vikings defense?
Answer: In lots of positive ways
It was the tale of three seasons for Brian Flores’ defense. At the beginning of the year it looked like the Vikings were in for a long year. They allowed 900 yards in games against Philly and Los Angeles and then hunkered down and gave up more than 25 points only twice in a 10-week stretch in the middle of the year. But the weight of an offense that turned the ball over and key injuries eventually got too heavy for the defense to carry and they struggled to the end of the season, giving up 120 points over the final four weeks.
In the end the Vikings finished 14th in points and 16th in yards allowed, which was a huge jump from last season. Flores played in integral role in identifying, developing talent and maximizing players like Ivan Pace Jr., Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus and DJ Wonnum. If he doesn’t land a head coaching job the Vikings will be thrilled to have him return and build on what they started.
Preseason question: Will 2022 draft picks Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. or Ed Ingram emerge in Year 2?
Answer: Only a little bit
Ed Ingram showed large improvement in 2023, going from leading the league in pressures allowed as a rookie to ranking 34th of 58 guards. It wasn’t a jump into top-notch play but he was not a liability, giving the offense an opportunity to operate without the quarterback being constantly under pressure. The Vikings can go into next season with some confidence he can continue to grow.
As for the first and second selections from 2022, it was a tough go. Cine barely saw the field, dropping to the bottom of the depth chart and only appearing in six games, almost exclusively on special teams. Andrew Booth Jr. played just 151 snaps, mostly due to players ahead of him getting injured.
Preseason question: Will anyone aside from Danielle Hunter emerge as a pass rush threat?
Answer: No
Danielle Hunter had a dominating season despite all the attention focusing on him. He finished ninth in pressures and fifth in sacks (16.5). Everyone else around him struggled to get after the passer. While DJ Wonnum picked up 8.0 sacks, he finished 51st of 57 starters in PFF’s pass rush win rate. Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard ranked in the bottom five. Patrick Jones also played his fair share of snaps and ranked 121st of 122 starters and rotational edge rushers in overall PFF grade. Rookie Andre Carter played 68 snaps and produced four pressures. The most dangerous rusher outside of Hunter was safety/linebacker Josh Metellus.
Preseason question: How will inexperienced players in the secondary fare?
Answer: There were ups and downs
The Vikings saw second-year starter Cam Bynum take a step forward in a more aggressive role than last season and rookie Mekhi Blackmon lead the team in PFF coverage grade. Those were the positive developments. Akayleb Evans faded down the stretch and was benched in multiple games and no one else emerged as even a plus role player outside of safety Theo Jackson (125 snaps). An injury to Bryon Murphy Jr. at the end of the season made it clear how weak the depth of the secondary was this season. It’s an area they will need to address going forward.
Preseason question: Is this finally the year the Vikings have a good offensive line?
Answer: Mostly yes
Overall PFF ranked the Vikings as the No. 2 pass blocking line and 10th best in run blocking. Tackle Christian Darrisaw was one of the 10 highest graded linemen in the NFL this year and overall Brian O’Neill and Dalton Risner were above average pass blockers. Risner did have issues with run blocking, grading 49th of 58 starters. Center Garrett Bradbury’s grades dipped at the end of the year and he finished as a below average pass blocker. Ingram was on the border of average by grade but still gave up a team-high 42 pressures (third in the NFL among guards). The Vikings got strong performances from their backups Austin Schlottmann and David Quessenberry.
There are certainly shortcomings to the offensive line but it outperformed expectations and gave the Vikings an opportunity to operate effectively in the passing game far more than previous seasons.
Preseason question: Will TJ Hockenson justify his big pay day?
Answer: Absolutely yes
After a rough start with some key drops early in the year, Hockenson was dominant in the receiving game, finishing with the second most receptions in the NFL among tight ends. Particularly when Justin Jefferson was out Hockenson rose to the occasion. However, he suffered a terrible knee injury at the end of the year that may impact his 2024 season.
