The Minnesota Vikings are 10-2, have won nine out of their past 10 games and are sitting toward the top of the NFC standings. The Detroit Lions are 5-7, likely out of the playoff race but have won four of their past five games.
If we were to do a blind test, the average football fan would pick the Vikings to win Sunday’s game in Detroit, but the Lions are 2.5-point favorites. Like, what?
The last time Minnesota faced a questionable line, the Dallas Cowboys were 1.5-point favorites before smashing the Vikings by 37 points in a 40-3 loss on Nov. 20. So is Vegas on to something or are they the latest in the long line of national pundits that question the Vikings’ legitimacy as playoff contenders?
Looking at Sunday’s matchup, it’s not exactly a smash spot for the Vikings. Detroit’s offense ranks sixth with 315 points scored and ninth with 4,429 yards of total offense. The Lions are especially good at throwing the ball, ranking eighth with 6.8 net yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ defense has been maligned over the past several weeks. The Vikings have allowed over 400 yards of total offense in each of their past four games and have allowed over 450 yards of total offense in three of their past four games.
The most recent example of the Vikings’ futility came Sunday when Mike White strolled into U.S. Bank Stadium and helped the New York Jets rack up a season-high 486 yards of total offense.
Even stranger? The Vikings have allowed exactly 486 yards three times this season with the other two coming in a Week 2 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Week 11 beating by the Cowboys.
Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has placed an emphasis on points allowed as opposed to yards this season, but the Vikings are 22nd with 23.3 points allowed per game. They also rank third in yards allowed (4,784) and are tied with the Chicago Bears with 7.1 net yards allowed per passing attempt.
With Jameson Williams expected to play more this week, the Lions will have a vertical threat to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown and could be in for plenty of big plays downfield.
This could also happen considering that five Vikings missed practice due to illness on Wednesday including Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith. Even if Cameron Dantzler returns after missing the past four games with an ankle injury, Jared Goff could find himself firing passes against Duke Shelley and Josh Metellus.
Even if the Vikings are able to overcome those factors, Vegas could be considering the team’s history against Dan Campbell. The Metallica-loving head coach has a 1-2 record against Minnesota but he’s made the Vikings sweat more than someone sitting in a sauna while listening to a 20-minute guitar solo of a “Master of Puppets” cover.
Although Minnesota has dominated the rivalry, Campbell’s Lions seem to bring the fight to the Vikings. With the Vikings making a habit of one-score games, Sunday’s game could come down to the wire and it could mean another upset in Detroit.
Last year in Detroit, the Lions went into halftime with a 20-6 lead before the Vikings stormed back to jump ahead 27-23 on a Justin Jefferson touchdown reception from Kirk Cousins with 1:50 to go. Goff drove through Mike Zimmer’s defense and found St. Brown on an 11-yard, walk-off touchdown.
In their previous meeting this year, the Lions racked up 416 yards of total offense, jumped out to two different 14-point leads, and the Vikings needed a 28-yard touchdown pass from Cousins to K.J. Osborn to escape with a 28-24 victory.
So, yeah, the Lions being favored isn’t all that surprising after all.
