By the time we reach the NFL Draft, it feels like there’s about 50 players who the Minnesota Vikings could take in the first round. But a data tool created by ESPN suggests there are only seven prospects whose odds are actually high of landing in Minnesota.
In 2022, ESPN launched its Draft Day Predictor, a statistical tool that imports mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to create percentage chances that each player will be available at a particular position and which teams they are most likely to be drafted by.
While 2022’s Malik Willis hype fooled everyone including the predictor and no method can project with extremely good accuracy what’s going to happen on draft night, the Draft Day Predictor’s 2022 projections did give QBs Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell all less than 50% chance to be first-round picks despite buzz for each of them. It also nailed Trevon Walker as the lock top pick, that Sauce Gardner would go in the top five and the fact the Packers couldn’t get a top wide receiver at 22.
So what does it say about the Vikings? Here are the players it suggests are most likely to be selected by Minnesota:
QB, Hendon Hooker
Third highest team odds
Between 80%-90% of being available at No. 23
The Tennessee star is the only QB being given any type of odds to be available when the Vikings pick at No. 23. The next lowest of the five who have been mocked in the first round is Will Levis, who has around a 5% chance to last until the 20th pick. Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud’s lowest projection is eighth. Interestingly the Cardinals and Colts are getting slightly higher chances of selecting Hooker than the Vikings.
In order to pick Hooker the Vikings would need to be all-in on making him their 2024 quarterback. It’s possible that everyone in the front office and coaching staff is buying his tremendous statistical performance, ability to avoid interceptions and fumbles and reported white-board proficiency but there has to be some skepticism due to his age, ability to grow/develop and struggles with sacks and pressure.
Earlier this offseason we looked into the Hooker hype and found “loose threads” connecting him to the Vikings. ESPN’s model suggests it should be taken quite seriously.
WR, Jordan Addison
No. 1 highest team odds
Between 60%-70% chance of being available
Addison is the player the predictor machine thinks is most likely to land with the Vikings but it can’t quite decide if he’s going to be there at No. 23 or not. The Vikings’ need at receiver is undebatable — not only did they cut Adam Thielen this offseason but KJ Osborn’s contract is up after this year. That leaves them with major questions about Justin Jefferson’s partner. No team should believe more in the power of WR2/WR3 than the franchise than ran out Three Deep and had the best receiver duo in the sports from 2016-present.
Is Addison the right fit compared to other receivers in the draft? His skillset seems to suggest he can get open on quick and intermediate routes and was strong vs. man coverage (76.2 PFF grade) and moved around in his alignment. Addison was also a touchdown machine with 25 in the last two years and Thielen’s red zone prowess will clearly need to be replaced. Of all the receivers, his crafty route running would seem to fit what the Vikings need best.
WR, Quentin Johnston
Second highest team odds
Between 70%-80% chance of being available
The TCU receiver who produced 8.9 yards after the catch per reception. That’s an incredible mark, reflective of a player like San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel. If the Vikings prefer to find someone who is a playmaker with the ball in his hands who needs some sharpening with route running, Johnston might be the guy. Once upon a time they let Cordarrelle Patterson’s skill with the ball go to waste but they might like another shot at that with Johnston.
What stands out about his Predictor results is that he has a better shot at being around than Addison. The two teams before the Vikings are the Chargers and Ravens, both of whom could make a case for a receiver.
WR, Zay Flowers
Fourth highest team odds
Between 40%-50% chance of being available
The Predictor is buying receivers for the Vikings. Its data suggests that the Boston College star, who caught 78 passes for over 1,000 yards last season, should be coveted before the Vikings are on the board but still sees it as a coin flip that he is there. Flowers is undersized and thrives in the slot, which could intrigue them as a team that wants versatile receivers. It’ll be worth watching if he survives a potential run on receivers or if he’s long gone by the Vikings’ draft position.
DT, Calijah Kancey
Fourth highest team odds
Between 40%-50% chance of being available
The only defensive linemen connected at all with the Vikings is undersized interior rusher Calijah Kancey, whose athletic scores at the Combine and his pro day shined as much as his production at Pitt. The Vikings have been lacking interior rush since Sheldon Richardson left and they didn’t address that position outside of signing veteran Dean Lowry. The Predictor expects the Lions, Seahawks and Chargers to be in the mix for his services as well.
CB, Deonte Banks
Second highest team odds
Between 60%-70% chance of being available
In a draft heavy with cornerbacks projected in the first round, the Predictor doesn’t think the Vikings can get their hands on the top three, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez or Joey Porter Jr. But the fourth best is still pretty darn good. Banks put together one of the best NFL Combines ever for a cornerback of his size and had strong numbers at Maryland. No team that picks before the Vikings has higher odds to land him but the Lions and Ravens have the best chances to take Banks before Minnesota is on the clock.
CB, Emmanuel Forbes
Third highest team odds
Between 80%-90% chance of being available
An undersized interception machine, Forbes is getting a lot of love from the Draft Predictor in the early 20s, putting the highest percentages on the Ravens, Vikings, Jaguars and Giants. What stands out about Forbes’ numbers is the variance of where he will be taken. The Predictor has him going anywhere from 19th to 53rd, which is way different from Banks’ 16th-40th range.
Trade options
Forbes falls into the category of a player the Vikings could roll the dice on by trading back and hoping he drops.
Here are some other players who were not connected with Minnesota but the Predictor sees as being potentially available in the late first round or early second in a trade-down scenario:
— Michigan, CB, DJ Turner
— Georgia, CB, Kelee Ringo
— Kansas State, CB, Julius Brents
— South Carolina, CB, Cam Smith
— Georgia Tech, DE, Keion White
— Iowa State, OLB, Will McDonald IV
— Kansas State, DE, Felix Anudike-Uzomah
— Northwestern, DE, Adetomiwa Adebawore
— Michigan, DT, Mazi Smith
— Clemson, DT, Bryan Bresee
— Tennessee, WR, Jalin Hyatt
