Three straight losses has the Minnesota Vikings spiraling towards a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
If they lose to the Lions on Sunday, where they are 5-point road underdogs, they will finish 7-10 and be picking no lower than 12th. But how much higher in the draft order can they go?
Tiebreakers to determine the order of the draft are based first on strength of schedule. Teams with the lower strength of schedule are awarded a higher pick.
At 7-9, the Vikings are currently tied with the Raiders, Bears and Falcons. Minnesota is slotted 12th in the draft order, with the Raiders 11th, Bears 10th and Falcons ninth. That’s because the Falcons, Bears and Raiders have a lower strength of schedule.
Strength of schedule entering Week 18:
- Vikings: .507
- Raiders: .489
- Bears: .463
- Falcons: .423
If the Vikings are going to move up, they’re going to have to lose to the Lions and hope the Falcons, Bears and Raiders all win on Sunday. How likely is that?
The Raiders are favored at home over the Broncos by 2.5 points while the Bears are 3-point underdogs at Green Bay and the Falcons are 3.5-point underdogs at New Orleans.
If the Vikings lose and those three teams all win, the Vikings would jump to the No. 9 pick. That’s as high as the Vikings can go.
It’s possible that the Vikings and Jets could finish as the only teams at 7-10, but the Jets will finish with a lower strength of schedule than the Vikings because the Jets play the lowly Patriots this week while the Vikings’ strength of schedule will rise against the 11-win Lions. The Jets and Vikings have identical .507 strength of schedule entering the final week of the regular season.
If the Vikings win and finish 8-9, they could be picking as low at No. 16.
