Where the Twins sit in MLB’s new draft lottery system

Following the lead of NBA, Major League Baseball will hold its first draft lottery sometime before the end of 2022. And now that the regular season is over, the lottery odds of the 18 non-playoff are set. 

The Minnesota Twins finished 78-84, tied with the Red Sox for the 13th-worst record in the majors. Unfortunately, that’s no-man’s land in the lottery. Bad enough to miss the playoffs, but not bad enough to have a legit shot at winning a top pick. 

The Twins have a 0.9% chance to win the top pick, compared to a 71.9% chance to stay at 13. Their next-highest odds are the 14th pick (18.77). The three worst teams, the Nationals, Athletics and Pirates, each have a 16.5% shot at the top pick. 

1. Nationals — 16.50%
2. Athletics — 16.50%
3. Pirates — 16.50%
4. Reds —13.25%
5. Royals — 10.00%
6. Tigers — 7.50%
7. Rangers — 5.50%
8. Rockies — 3.90%
9. Marlins — 2.70%
10. Angels — 1.80%
11. D-backs — 1.40%
12. Cubs — 1.10%
13. Twins — 0.90%
14. Red Sox — 0.76%
15. White Sox — 0.62%
16. Giants — 0.48%
17. Orioles — 0.36%
18. Brewers — 0.23%

The lottery will determine the first six picks in the draft, with the teams who don’t land in the top six then picking in order of worst record. Tiebreakers will go to the team with the worse record from the season prior, which is why the Twins are just ahead of the Red Sox in the lottery odds. 

Minnesota could pick anywhere from 1-6 or 13-17. Here’s their pick-by-pick odds. 

1. 0.9%
2. 1.0%
3. 1.2%
4. 1.4%
5. 1.7%
6. 2.0%
7. 0%
8. 0%
9. 0%
10. 0%
11. 0%
12. 0%
13. 71.9%
14. 18.7%
15. 1.2%
16. >0.0%
17. >0.0%
18. 0%

Related: What’s next for the Twins and Carlos Correa?