Before we get too far into the fantasy world, let’s preface this story by saying the odds of the Timberwolves making the playoffs are ultra slim at this point.
Minnesota is 63 games into the season and has just 29 wins.
Not exactly the kind of effort a starving basketball fanbase was hoping for after the Wolves snuck into the playoffs as the eight seed a year ago. Still, the back door to the Western Conference playoffs remains open if the Wolves can muster up some gumption and win some big games.
Current playoff chances
As it stands entering play Monday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Wolves a microscopic 0.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. The percentage is calculated based on each team’s remaining schedule being simulated 10,000 times.
FiveThirtyEight does something similar and it gives the Wolves a 2 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
Basketball Reference also runs thousands of simulations to create playoff chances, and it gives Minnesota a 0.6 percent chance.
No matter how you slice it, the Wolves are big underdogs.
Upsets, upsets and more upsets
Part of the reason Minnesota has such low playoff chances is due to the fact that 13 of their remaining 19 games are against teams currently in the playoff picture.
It’s the second most difficult remaining schedule in the Western Conference, so the reality is that the Wolves are going to have to beat the best of the best, night in and night out, just to have a shot at sneaking in as the eight seed.
But don’t count on it.
The Wolves have just 10 wins against teams that are currently positioned to make the playoffs this season, and 19 against non-playoff teams.
Hope for teams ahead to bust
The Western Conference’s top six seeds are pretty much set barring some jockeying back and forth, but it’s the seventh and eighth seeds that are up for grabs.
Entering play Monday, the Clippers (36-29) are in seventh and the Spurs (35-29) are in eighth. They’re following by Kings (3 games back at 31-31), Lakers (4.5 games back at 30-33) and the Wolves (5.5 games back at 29-34).
Sadly, the Spurs and Kings have two of the three easiest remaining schedules among teams in the West, and the Lakers have LeBron James, who just so happens to be really good at getting his team to the playoffs.
Bound for the lottery
The numbers say the Wolves are destined to miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick in the June NBA Draft.
Just how good could that pick be?
Minnesota won’t finish with one of the five worst records in the league. It’s more likely that they’ll be slotted somewhere between 10th and 14th worst, which would give them an extremely limited chance to land a top-three pick in the draft.
Who is to blame?
Tom Thibodeau for starters considering he mishandled the Jimmy Butler debacle that turned the Wolves into a laughing stock before and during the early part of the season.
Andrew Wiggins needs blame for failing to elevate his game even though Butler’s departure coupled with Robert Covington’s injury gave him an incredible opportunity to show why his five-year, $148 million max contract was worthwhile. Instead, he’s been a disappointment.
Injuries are also to blame because Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones and Covington have all missed significant time with health issues, and that certainly played a role in their win/loss record.
