EAGAN — Every successful pro athlete has a super power.
For some, it’s speed and power. Intelligence for others. Precision. Work ethic. Toughness. Competitive fire.
For Kirk Cousins, it’s the ability to put horse blinders on and — as he says — go to work.
Over the years Cousins has dealt with Washington’s lack of commitment and endless debates in D.C. over whether he could be their franchise QB. He was at the center of criticism in Minnesota after receiving the most guaranteed money in history (at the time) and then missing the postseason in 2018. On a week-to-week basis, Cousins is either being called the MVP or the worst quarterback in the league by TV debate shows. He’s had a head coach who undermined him, different offensive coordinators every year, receivers who demanded trades and everything in between. Yet he’s always been the exact same player.
You would be hard pressed to find a more consistent quarterback in NFL history from year to year. From 2015 through 2022, Cousins has always averaged between 240 and 270 yards passing per game, between 25 and 35 touchdowns, 65-70% completion, 92-107 quarterback rating and top-15 PFF grade. The strengths have always been the strengths i.e. accuracy, execution and the weaknesses have always been the weaknesses i.e. mobility, playmaking. And he’s always played every game (except that one in Green Bay that everyone would prefer to forget).
So when Cousins declared at the end of minicamp that he wouldn’t think about contract extension talks until next March, you would tend to believe that it won’t have any impact on his record of consistency. You would expect similar production, a shade more sharpness in Kevin O’Connell’s offense and a touch of regression from his record-tying eight fourth quarter comebacks.
But what does that mean for his future? When a player says that he’ll worry about an extension down the road, that leaves you with the feeling that it’s over. Like when a free agent says, “I want to be a Minnesota Viking,” on locker clean out day and then signs elsewhere 38 seconds after the opening of free agency.
Who could blame Cousins for his disposition. He’s not going to beg. After a 13-win season, it is fair for him to expect a commitment. Where the Vikings stand in their roster timeline, it’s fair for them not to commit. So it seems like we know where this train is headed.
It would make sense for the Vikings to let it all play out, allow Cousins to leave and draft their future quarterback. After all, why keep a veteran quarterback in the last stanza of his career when the roster needs at least one year of development and some free agency spending in order to compete with peaking teams like Philly, San Francisco and Dallas for the NFC.
From Cousins’s perspective, it makes sense to see which teams are on the rise but a quarterback short of a contender. Maybe that ends up being the 49ers if things don’t work out with Brock Purdy. Maybe it’s Atlanta if Desmond Ridder fails or maybe he’s Tampa Bay’s answer to post-Brady life.
Or maybe he stays with the Vikings.
So long as he’s still in purple, we can’t count out the possibility that tabling talks until March actually results in signing an extension in March. But what would need to happen in order for that to play out?
We should first say that he would need to be predicting correctly that it takes until next season. The Vikings and Cousins’s agent could still come to an agreement before the start of the season and he could walk to the podium and say, “Fooled y’all!”
Supposing that does not happen, there is a set of circumstances that could lead to Cousins remaining the QB for multiple years to come (that does not involve winning the Super Bowl. That’s obvious. If he wins the Super Bowl, he can change St. Paul’s name to St. Kirk.)
The biggest holdup for Cousins remaining is where the team stands as a whole. There are a number of young players with upside but losing Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Cook puts them in a tough position to compete right now, particularly on defense. But that’s just our expectation or best guess at how things will play out.
If the youth movement on defense rises to the challenge and puts together a very good year — let’s say they ranked 12th in points allowed — the Vikings could win the division so long as Detroit doesn’t become this year’s Philly.
Add to that an explosive season from Jordan Addison that takes the Vikings’ passing game to the next level and suddenly the Vikings could look like a team that could be on the upswing going into 2024.
Maybe altogether they win 11 games if everything goes right.
The benefit at that point to signing Cousins would be having an established quarterback to go with a roster that was ready to win. They could also spread out his dead cap money rather than taking on the $28 million dead cap space.
By the way, what if the QB class isn’t impressive? Or that the only QBs will be taken very high and the Vikings are picking in the 20s without the ammo to move up?
It doesn’t seem unrealistic that under those circumstances all parties would consider remaining together.
OK, follow up questions. Would Cousins really sign at that point? After years of the Vikings hemming and hawing each time it came to extending him and then doing it for the shortest possible number of years, would he want to stay? Or stick it in their face for not committing earlier. Possibly add a little, “You like that?” as the door slams.
Would it still make sense to move on because the Vikings could give a rookie QB all the benefits of a roster on the rise plus cap space going into 2025 to build a juggernaut? What’s better for a young quarterback than an outstanding receiver duo?
What are the odds that all of those things come together? If the requirement to be considered a team that’s on the cusp of Super Bowl contention is that the defense takes a big step forward, Addison is a star, the offensive line develops and there are no unforeseen circumstances with other players on the rise or parts of the roster, then the chances of that all happening at once aren’t particularly high,
As long as Cousins is still under center this year, the door remains open to him “earning the right” to be a Viking for the remainder of his career, even if that seems far away right now with the present state of things between the QB and team. But if the two sides go into Week 1 without a new contract, the odds shift heavily toward the Vikings moving on at QB after this season. And if they are on a normal competitive rebuild trajectory, that makes the most sense for everyone.
