Let’s take stock of what has happened since the Minnesota Vikings lost to the New York Giants at US Bank Stadium in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs.
The Vikings hired a new defensive coordinator whose background is in scouting and player evaluation. They cut Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen and Cam Dantzler and there have been reports that Harrison Smith could be next to be released, Za’Darius Smith wants out and they’re receiving trade offers concerning Dalvin Cook.
And then the biggest bit of speculation on Sunday: NFL Network reported that there has been no significant movement on a contract extension for Kirk Cousins. The words “bet on himself” were uttered on TV by Ian Rapoport, who seemed confident about the possibility Cousins could play out the final year of his contract and hit free agency after next season. Though it had to have gone through everyone’s brain all at once: Why not trade him if the Vikings don’t want to sign him to an extension or he doesn’t want to sign one?
Within the next few days, the Vikings’ organization could be flipped upside down. By rule they need to be compliant with the salary cap by March 15 and the “legal tampering” period starts Monday at 11 AM CT. That means if the rumored stuff is all going to happen, it is going to start happening this week. This is the second fork in the road in two offseasons that the Vikings have faced.
Last year, they elected to take a swing at the playoffs. They moved money, added void years, extended Cousins and pumped positive culture into the building like air freshener at my gym. Owner Mark Wilf was pleased with the offseason effort prior to 2022, saying prior to training camp that ownership had more “communication” about the direction of the team last offseason because of the short window that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell were working with. He noted that their goal was to get back to the playoffs.
Choosing that path led to 13 wins and one of the most memorable seasons of the last decade. Of course, after they lost to the Giants, who wasn’t wondering what the draft capital and salary cap situation would look like right now had they done a tear down before last year rather than being forced into it now.
Anyway, it’s worth noting that the potential routes are different than they were one year ago. Last March they didn’t have to move on from anybody. This March they have already cut two future Ring of Honor players. Last March there was a dream scenario where the Big Bad Wolf was gone and the Vikings sung the SKOL song at the top of magical mountain tops of success in a dreamy football wonderland (and that kinda happened, by the way).
This year, we know that no amount of good vibes can keep your defense from ranking 27th if there are massive personnel weaknesses. Last year there was a world where the quarterback was happy and the offense took the league by storm. This year we have a sample size of Cousins playing pretty well under O’Connell but not being fundamentally different.
Put in simpler terms: You can see farther down one of the roads now than you could when KAM and KOC were hired.
There won’t be a better time for the brass to be bold. Fans have seen many remakes of the same movie and never came home from the theatre satisfied after the finale. The actors are older and a new cast would be welcomed, particularly in the lead role. And if history has taught us anything, it’s that when a winning window closes, a door opens.
Vikings leadership may face the question about making an overhaul after winning 13 games but there is a few recent examples of teams reaching the postseason and then hitting the big red button to implode the thing.
In 2017, the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time since the Music City Miracle in 1999. Tyrod Taylor led them to wins in four of their final six games in ‘17 and they lucked into a crazy last-minute touchdown by the Bengals to make the postseason. Head coach Sean McDermott turned the culture around and they seemed to be on their way. In the following offseason, they moved on from Taylor, drafted Josh Allen and dropped back to a 6-10 season in 2018. The next year they were back in the playoffs, the year after that they were in the AFC Championship game.
You could certainly say that a tale like that can only be told if the team drafts the right quarterback. That’s certainly true. But you’ll never draft Josh Allen unless you try.
With Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell having stocked good will to the roof, there will never be a better time to make major changes. They have proven they can run an organization and coach a division champion. General competence will get you pretty far in the NFL (see: The Steelers’ run of winning seasons under Mike Tomlin). One year in transition would not sour the first impressions of both.
If the Vikings half-measure this week, they risk missing their chance to scorch the earth. This opportunity won’t be met with as much enthusiasm from fans of change in 2024 as it will be now. They have already taken the first steps and there hasn’t been a drop of outrage.
That doesn’t have to mean trading Cousins. It might mean gritting their teeth when looking at his 2023 cap hit rather than bending an extension to lower it. It doesn’t have to mean drafting a quarterback. It might mean ensuring there’s enough 2024 draft capital to trade up to get one next year.
Whichever way they decide to handle the next week, we know this: It will have ripple effects for years to come. If they undergo an overhaul, the dreams of singing from magical football mountaintops won’t exactly be about the 2023 season but they will be about the franchise they could someday become when the next bunch of Ring of Honor players come through.
