The Vikings and Colts go to battle at 12 p.m. Central Time inside U.S. Bank Stadium as the first game of a triple-header on NFL Network. The game will also be televised on ABC, so no worries if you don’t have NFL Network. Here’s what you can count in in today’s game…
1. The Vikings clinch the NFC North
This shouldn’t take any longer than it has to and it’s very simple: Beat the Colts and the NFC North is Minnesota’s and no one can take it from them until 2023. You see, the problem with not clinching on Saturday means the Vikings lost, and that would mean they’d be 10-4, tied with the 49ers.
But the 49ers are red-hot (7 straight wins) and would own the tiebreaker because they are 8-2 in the NFC compared to the Vikings being 6-3 against conference opponents. That would give San Fran the inside track to the No. 2 seed and push Minnesota down to the No. 3 seed with three weeks to go.
2. Tough challenge for Justin Jefferson
Nobody stops Justin Jefferson, but if there’s a team capable of slowing him down it is the Colts with cornerbacks Isaiah Rodgers and Stephen Gilmore. In Pro Football Focus’ cornerback rankings, Rodgers is No. 2 and Gilmore is No. 7. That’s an elite 1-2 punch at cornerback, similar to the dynamic duos of the New York Jets (Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed) and Philadelphia Eagles (Darius Slay and James Bradberry).
Rodgers and Gilmore spend the majority of their snaps out wide, so this is a game where fans will likely see a lot of Jefferson running routes out of the slot.
3. A more aggressive defensive game plan
Minnesota rarely blitzes, nor do they bring more than four rushers very often. But after getting obliterated by good and mediocre offenses over the past five weeks, the pressure has reached a point where defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has to dial up some heat.
There’s no way Matt Ryan carves up the Vikings when throwing to Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell, right? That’s probably the same line of thinking everyone had when the Vikings were about to face Mac Jones throwing to Jakobi Meyers, Davante Parker and Nelson Agohlor and that wound up being a career day for Jones with 382 passing yards.
The Vikings failed to bring extra rushers against Jones until late in the fourth quarter, and when they did that Jones stopped shredded them. Expect pressure early and often against Ryan and the Colts.
4. Christian Darrisaw’s return fuels the running game
Since the Vikings’ Week 7 bye, Minnesota has the lowest rushing success rate in the NFL at 31.4%. In the last four games, it’s 22.4%. It wasn’t good even with Darrisaw playing in Weeks 8-10 against Arizona, Washington and Buffalo, but it fell off the cliff without Darrisaw in the past four games that he missed with a concussion (he left the Dallas game in Week 11 early in the first quarter).
When Darrisaw specifically is on the field, the Vikings are averaging 4.76 yards per rush. When he’s been sidelined, Minnesota is averaging 2.88 yards per carry. The running situation gets even better if Garrett Bradbury returns from a back injury.
Indy is allowing 126.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the NFL.
5. Matt Ryan fumbles
The veteran QB has certainly cleaned up his fumbling issue that at one point this season had him on pace to shatter the single-season fumble record. He had nine fumbles in the first four games this season and he’s now up to an NFL-high 14, five of which were recovered by the opponents.
You know who’s good at forcing fumbles? Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. If the Vikings can apply pressure and hit Ryan, there’s a pretty good chance he fumbles the ball.
