EAGAN — There is a freeze frame from Sunday’s game going around social media that perfectly describes the 2023 season for the Minnesota Vikings so far. It shows cornerback Akayleb Evans with both hands on a pass thrown by Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The caption notes that the Chargers somehow scored a touchdown on that play.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg of random stuff that has happened to the Vikings in their first three games. We can say that regression to the mean was coming for them this year after going 11-0 in one-score games but this has been down right biblical.
After two more turnovers on Sunday, the Vikings are now up to nine follies on the season. There are 15 teams who have one-third that number or less. Their opponents have fumbled three times in the last two games and recovered two of them before the Vikings could jump on top of the ball.
They have the same point differential as the 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers and 15 points better than the 2-1 Washington Commanders. In Week 1 the Bucs stole an INT at the goal line and landed a 59-yard field goal that ultimately decided the game. In Week 2, the Eagles made one from 61 yards. Also a punt returner who’s never fumbled before dropped the ball on his way down — a play which could have swung the tide of the game significantly. And then on Sunday, two bounces to end all bounces: Evans’s doink ended up in the hands of receiver Josh Palmer to give the Chargers the lead and then a last-second pass to TJ Hockenson bopped off his fingertips, off a Charger and into the hands of another Charger for the game-ending interception.
The Vikings have also been hit by injuries in some places they couldn’t afford to lose players. Outside linebacker Marcus Davenport has only been on the field for four snaps. His backups rank 106th and 124th out of 124 edge rushers by PFF. Center Garrett Bradbury was expected to continue where he left off last season and play a key role in blocking communication and the run scheme but he went down in Week 1, leaving Austin Schlottmann to lead the offense. He’s graded well as a pass blocker but 28th of 37 centers in the run game. Oh, and Christian Darrisaw reaggravated an ankle injury before the Eagles game and sat out vs. the scariest D-line in the league.
Randomness aside, the Vikings have earned their losses. Their defense has allowed the seventh most points and sixth most yards in the NFL. Pro-Football Reference ranks then 26th in pressure percentage and opposing QBs have a 116.4 QB rating against them. The offense has been excellent at times but imperfect, scoring points on just 33% of their drives, which is 18th. Even after an improved day on the ground they are still 30th in rushing Expected Points Added and 102 out of Kirk Cousins’s 138 passing attempts have come playing from behind.
How do we sort all of this out? Are they a pretty good team that’s had bad luck? Are there adjustments and tweaks to be made in order to get on track or are the shortcomings too much to overcome?
“I do feel like even with some things that we could do a lot better, coach a lot better,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “We just need to find ways to get it done in the end. I think we have the right people in this building.”
The question is what they can do with the people in the building to be a lot better.
That starts with how much better guard Dalton Risner can make the offensive line. Against the Chargers right guard Ed Ingram gave up six total pressures, two of which turned into Cousins sacks. On the year he’s already given up 13 pressures, which is a pace that would clear his league-leading 58 pressures allowed from 2022. Risner has never given up 30 pressures in a season.
That could certainly improve the operation, though pressure hasn’t been as much of an issue as you might expect this season — at least on paper. Cousins is only the 20th most pressured QB by percentage of drop-backs and he has a 107.9 rating while under duress. Still, he is the second highest graded clean-pocked QB in the NFL per PFF, and completing nearly 80% of his throws. Any reduction in the heat on Cousins equates to more opportunities to sustain drives and create explosive plays.
The only issue with hoping for improvement in blocking is that the Vikings are facing the fifth ranked team in pass rush grade by PFF this week in Carolina and then they soon take on Kansas City with Chris Jones back and San Francisco, the No. 1 graded D-line. The jump in blocking key situations has to be significant.
“When I looked at it, there were some real missed opportunities,” O’Connell said of failed third downs against the Chargers. “That third-and-5 in the red zone counts, with a chance for Alex [Mattison] screening across there. We had Justin on another one where we got beat and then the pocket kind of collapsed. That’s where, ‘hey, what is my job on the play? How detailed? How technique and fundamentally sound were we in performing our job? And what was the result and how was it affected by wherever the lapses in execution were?’ And I think that showed up a couple times where we could have maybe stayed on the field with some conversions.”
On the defensive side, Carolina’s Andy Dalton attack could help them get back on track as could the return of Davenport but PFF ranks their pass rush as last in the NFL and there are no reinforcements on the way aside from their offseason acquisition. It’s possible rookie Andre Carter II could add some juice — he registered three pressures on Sunday in a situational role — but aside from them it does not appear any more acquisitions will be made.
That impacts the coverage unit, which struggled to stop Keenan Allen on Sunday. They will face off with Patrick Mahomes and the 49ers’ dynamic group of weapons within the next few weeks, which won’t make matters easier than what they saw against the Chargers.
“I just think every single week is going to be by game plan, how we want to approach it defensively,” O’Connell said. “Deploying our personnel, how we’re gonna play personnel-wise, what groupings are gonna be in the field, or on the field, and ultimately what Flo (Brian Flores) and his staff feel are the best ways to try to attack the opposing offense.”
There has been quite a bit of variance from each week in how they are deploying the personnel and game plan and successes have only come in small doses. They have already used 22 players on defense and played 13 on at least 80 snaps. Four players with at least 100 snaps are graded by PFF below 52, which puts them in the bottom quarter of players at their position. Danielle Hunter has 12 pressures and 5.0 sacks, the next best player has six pressures and one sack.
When the Vikings forced the Eagles to run, they went for 259 yards on the ground. When they tried to force Justin Herbert off his spot, he completed 34 of 40 passes when blitzed and had a 124.7 rating when the Vikings sent extra players at him.
“I thought it got us into some situations where we had some third-down potential stop opportunities… We’ve got to continue to try to take away people’s fastballs, whatever we can, but react when that ball gets put in play,” O’Connell said.
It doesn’t seem likely that good teams’ fastballs are going to be taken away unless some of the blitzes result in sacks and turnovers. When Flores’s defense in Miami was strong in 2021 they were ninth in turnovers and sixth in sacks. But in his first year as Dolphins coach, 2019, they ranked last in sacks and third-to-last in turnovers. There is only so much the scheme can do.
The opportunities to cause problems for opposing QBs may depend on the opposing QB. The upcoming schedule has two elite offenses in the next four weeks and two very poor offenses. After that the schedule opens up quite a bit.
From Week 8 to Week 14 the Vikings will face Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, possibly Jameis Winston (depending on Derek Carr’s health), Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo (if either QB still has their starting job at that point).
Six straight games versus QBs who are much more susceptible to big mistakes and a clear advantage at quarterback is promising. But if the Vikings can’t beat the Panthers and/or can’t pull off at least one upset in two games against KC and SF then the math just gets too heavy for them regardless of adjustments and adaptations. Going 2-2 in the next four would put them at 2-5 going on the road against Green Bay and Atlanta.
If the Vikings’ luck were to turn on a dime and they pulled off a 2022 Buffalo-like victory over KC or SF and headed to Lambeau at 3-4 the season would still be in reach if they were able to produce points more consistently and perform better versus more flawed offenses than the Chargers.
But it’s still going to be a very difficult climb because there is no room for a flop. Last year they survived a 33-point deficit to Indianapolis but normally those types of games result in a loss and even good teams have one bad afternoon/evenings. The Vikings have used up all of their bad afternoons/evenings and the footballs that bounced funny against them vs. the Chargers have to start popping into their hands from now on.
