What a difference a couple days makes in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback room went from just about the most stable and reliable in the NFL to completely unclear in both the short and long term. The Vikings traded for journeyman Josh Dobbs on Tuesday and made one other move. Let’s have a look at the implications and what they were saying at TCO Performance Center about the decisions at the trade deadline…
Josh Dobbs splits the difference
In acquiring Josh Dobbs, the Vikings made it clear that they wanted to have a quarterback who could potentially keep their season alive if Jaren Hall isn’t up to the task but they were not interested in mortgaging any part of the future. They acquired Dobbs for just a pick swap of a sixth for a seventh-round selection with the Arizona Cardinals.
“We looked at and evaluated a lot of different things and really, with some… guidelines of what we want to do in the short term, giving our team the best possible chance to continue the success that we’ve been on,” O’Connell said. “I think our team is still improving, and solidifying the quarterback room and the depth there to give us multiple guys we feel like we can go out and win with was important, and we feel like Josh does that.”
The acquisition seems to keep the Vikings on their “competitive rebuild” path of trying to focus on the present with a QB who has 10 career NFL starts while avoiding any sacrifice of the future. Had they chased more experienced QBs it’s like that that they prices would have been costly considering the other 31 teams are well aware of their situation with Kirk Cousins’ Achilles tear.
“I think this immediate solution that we found provides us with a really quality player at a time where we were able to go out and get that player without potentially leaving the world of the future and the now – we were kind of able to accomplish the goal of both and help our football team,” O’Connell said.
But how much does Dobbs help the 2023 Vikings? One thing is clear: He has the capacity to come into the building and learn the offense quickly. The former Steeler and Titan was acquired by the Cardinals on August 24 and then started Week 1 against Washington and played reasonably well considering the circumstances. Only two weeks after that Dobbs posted a tremendous performance against the Dallas Cowboys in which he went 17-for-21 with 9.0 yards per attempt in an upset win. Dobbs also adds some mobility to the position, rushing for 258 yards and added 19 first downs and three touchdowns with his legs.
However, the more he played the more some of his weaknesses were on display. Since the victory over the Cowboys, the ex-Tennessee quarterback completed only 59% of his passes with a 73.6 quarterback rating and was sacked 12 times. He graded by PFF 30th of 35 QBs since Week 4 and Arizona’s offense slipped to 28th overall in Expected Points Added via the passing game.
The one thing Dobbs has going for him in joining the Vikings is the supporting cast. The Cardinals ranked by PFF as the 22nd best team in pass blocking whereas Minnesota is third. The Vikings, when they get Justin Jefferson back, have one of the best groups of weapons in the NFL. Arizona’s receiving corps is nowhere close to that. The Vikings ranked seventh in passing EPA and emerging rookie Jordan Addison has 23 receptions for 297 yards and five touchdowns in his last four games.
“Josh gives us an experienced player who has started some games, not only this year, but last, and has played some good football against some of the best defenses in our league and found ways to move the ball,” O’Connell said. “[He] brings a level of athleticism to go along with great, great football intelligence and smart player, have always loved his makeup and what he’s all about, and he’s played in a variety of different offenses and I know he’s excited to get going here.”
Jaren Hall will start on Sunday and have a chance to keep starting
O’Connell announced that Jaren Hall will be under center against the Atlanta Falcons this week.
Does he have a chance to hold down the job if he plays well?
“What gives us the best possible chance to win?” O’Connell said. “I think it’s important that we’re always evaluating for Jaren and his development and where we think he may go in this league, what that looks like in the current situation.”
Hall came into the game against the Packers for five snaps. He completed three of his four passes but was also strip-sacked. In his brief appearance, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said that Hall showed that he was prepared to be there.
“He’s a poised guy when he goes into the huddle,” Phillips said. “Several of the players in the game last week when he had to go in felt good about his presence in the huddle. Those guys can feel that when you go in there and call the play with confidence and give guys a feeling that this guy is on top of it and knows what he’s doing.”
During the preseason the rookie got lots of work including playing the entire final game of the exhibition slate. He went 26-for-48 for 264 yards (5.5 YPA) with one touchdown, one interception and nine times sacked. Since then O’Connell said he has worked plenty of “lonely hours” trying to improve his game with coaches and has effectively operated the scout team during practice.
“There will be tremendous opportunity for growth on a play-to-play, drive-to-drive and hopefully game-to-game basis that will allow us to watch Jaren grow before our very eyes,” O’Connell said. “I think he’s physically capable, I think he’s mentally capable, and I think he’s made up of the right stuff. I love the way he’s attacked whatever role he’s been in throughout the season.”
The Vikings’ staff not only has the challenge of replacing a highly experienced quarterback who fluently understood the offense but also in assessing what will work best for Hall and how much he can process and still play confidently.
“It’s part of our job…to come up with a plan that suits him, not only his ability but understanding this is going to be his first start and making sure that the plan is tight enough and he can have some ownership of it and by the end of the week hopefully he’ll feel locked in on everything he needs to do, whether it’s reads or protection or changing plays at the line of scrimmage,” Phillips said. “We don’t want to overload him.”
Where the Vikings must support Hall better than they have with Cousins is in the running game. They are 26th in EPA and 27th in yards per attempt and face a Falcons team that has only given up 3.8 yards per carry.
“It does become that much more critical when you’re thinking about putting a young quarterback in third-and-long type situations if you can have that early down success…it’s going to be big for us, this is a good defense.”
Danielle Hunter stays
Brian Flores was at the podium about 30 minutes before the deadline. He was asked about the likelihood of keeping Danielle Hunter rather than trading him away, which had been rumored throughout the past few weeks.
“Nobody would be happier than me,” Flores said.
No kidding. Hunter enters this week leading the NFL in sacks and coming off a seven-pressure game against the Packers, his best of the year.
Based on the Bears’ trade for Washington star Montez Sweat for a second-round pick, the return for Hunter would likely have been significant. But the Vikings’ defense has been on a roll of late, allowing the third fewest yards per play in the NFL since the start of October. Robbing the group of Hunter would have made it very difficult for the defense to carry the team while replacing its starting quarterback.
There are certainly two sides to that coin. With Cousins out, the possibility of the Vikings making the postseason dropped significantly. Per the analytics site SumerSports.com the team’s odds to reach the playoffs dropped by 10% despite winning in Green Bay. In a calculated world, trading Hunter to a team desperate for pass rush would have been the prudent world.
The benefit of keeping Hunter aside from 2023 is that it keeps the door cracked open for an extension. Each offseason there has been posturing when it comes to his contract but the team cannot franchise tag him next year so they would have to work out something long term in order to keep him in purple.
Ezra Cleveland traded to the Jaguars
After seeing Dalton Risner play over the last two weeks, the Vikings decided rather than have left guard Ezra Cleveland sit on the bench they preferred to trade him to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick.
“I know it’s a great situation that Ezra’s going to down in Jacksonville, his former position coach down there on a really good team, and Ezra will help out those guys tremendously,” O’Connell said.
By the numbers Cleveland was having his best season as a Viking, ranking eighth overall by PFF among guards and 11th in pass blocking. His status as an unrestricted free agent after this season combined with O’Connell’s belief in backup Blake Brandel gave them the opportunity to get immediate draft capital rather than letting Cleveland walk in free agency and then wait for the compensatory pick.
“Any time a player is in the last year of his contract and we can acquire a future resource that we can use this year to help our team, it’s tough decisions with the makeup and the group we have, and I’m incredibly aware of our team and the locker room, but I do think this is going to be a positive move for not only Ezra, but with the depth we do have,” O’Connell said.
Will Kirk Cousins return?
It is far too soon to tell what the future holds at the quarterback position for the Vikings but one of the options on the table will be bringing Kirk Cousins back after he recovers from his Achilles tear. Of course that will depend on a number of factors, from how he heals to the team’s timeline to other possibilities at the position.
O’Connell was asked if Cousins could be part of their plans going forward.
“I think he was playing as well as anybody in the National Football League,” the head coach said. “And one of the biggest parts about kind of coping with this… I believe he was experiencing his best season in the National Football League.”
