The 2023 season could be the first without Aaron Rodgers in the NFC North since Justin Jefferson was 6 years old. That’s how long the Green Bay quarterback has been striking fear into opponents.
But times are changing and if ESPN’s Adam Schefter is accurate with his latest report Sunday morning, the Packers would prefer to trade Rodgers this offseason and pass the baton to backup quarterback Jordan Love.
“League sources believe the franchise prefers to move on from Rodgers, just as it once did with Brett Favre. Those sources also believe that Rodgers is well aware of the Packers’ feelings on the situation,” Schefter’s report reads, later saying there are “signs pointing to the fact that they will” figure out a trade.
If Rodgers is dealt, what happens to the competitive balance of the NFC North?
The Lions are certainly on the rise after finishing this season 9-8 following a 1-6 start, and the Bears have ingredients to go from loser to winner in speedy fashion. Chicago owns the No. 1 pick in the draft and has $92 million to spend on free agents.
The Vikings are a wild card. Fresh off a 13-win season, they were dunked in the first round of the playoffs by the Giants and Over The Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald estimates them to be $24.5 million over the 2023 salary cap.
Cutting high-priced veterans like Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks are obvious possibilities, but doing so would force the Vikings to plug holes on a roster that lacks proven depth at most positions.
The Packers are an estimated $16 million over next season’s salary cap. Rodgers’ cap charges are complicated. Here’s how Fitzgerald explains the former MVP’s contract and how trading him before or after June 1 makes a world of difference.
If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024.
Trading him after June 1 is a better option for the immediate future of the Packers because the 2023 cap hit is significantly lower. But it would come at the cost of acquiring picks via trade in the loaded 2023 draft. Trading him after June 1 would signal the Packers punting on the 2023 season with eyes on 2024 and beyond.
Trading him before June 1 would keep Green Bay playing salary cap gymnastics this offseason, but also likely give them significant draft capital to build around Jordan Love and Christian Watson in 2023.
Keep in mind, however, that Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are all free agents. Throw in the reality that cutting Aaron Jones saves the Packers another $10 million against the cap and suddenly Green Bay’s offense is centered around Love, Watson and A.J. Dillon.
It’s a lot to overcome, meaning that the most likely outcome of Green Bay moving on from Rodgers is the Packers looking up from the bottom of the NFC North.
The team impacted most by a Rodgers trade is clearly Minnesota. Detroit and Chicago are on the rise, but the Vikings have to decide whether to run it back with an aging roster or to hit the reset button to avoid setting the franchise on a slower track to a championship level than Green Bay.
Will a similar roster that was outscored by three points despite winning 13 games go 11-0 in one-score games and improve dramatically on defense? Running it back would be the equivalent of going all-in. Super Bowl or bust.
The danger is that it would require restructuring contracts of aging, expensive veterans and pushing that money down the road, which would surely put the Vikings on a slower timeline than the Packers – all while the Lions and Bears could be entering their own respective golden ages.
