EAGAN — Over the last decade, Minnesota Vikings fans have been tortured by struggling offensive lines that shuffled bodies in and out of the lineup with hopes of getting an average performance and surviving the NFL’s scariest defensive linemen. By PFF’s grading system, the Vikings have only ranked inside the top 20 O-lines in pass blocking twice since 2013. In 2017 they were 17th and last year 19th.
That certainly passes the eye test. Whether it was Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford or Kirk Cousins, it seems the recent Vikings quarterbacks have always been under more duress than they should be. This year hasn’t felt wildly different with Cousins getting strip-sacked twice in the first two weeks and sacked on several key third downs versus the Chargers. However, the numbers tell a totally different story from the past.
PFF ranks the Vikings fourth in pass blocking grade — and if you think they may have lost their marbles, Sports Info Solutions and ESPN also score them well. Analytics expert Ben Baldwin compiled the three to rate O-lines around the league in pass blocking and came up with this:
Pass protection composite ratings from three sources
These are starting to look much less wild than prior weeks
The Dolphins!! pic.twitter.com/4lfYGIZSU5
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 27, 2023
So what is happening here?
One thing is that sacks and turnovers stand out way more than a routine seven-step drop where Cousins flings a pass to a wide open Justin Jefferson but the data would capture all of the times where nobody reached the QB.
The fact that Cousins has only completed 18 of 40 passes under pressure makes the bad O-line reps more noticeable but there are currently 22 quarterbacks with higher pressure rates per drop-back than Cousins (per PFF). Cousins is also one of three quarterbacks with zero scrambles this year and his time to throw when pressured is ninth highest — meaning that the pressures that have happened have come quickly.
Another thing to consider is circumstances. The Vikings have played a lot of football from behind in the first three weeks. To be exact, Cousins has 102 pass attempts when trailing versus only only 36 throws when tied or ahead. Opponents play differently when they are ahead, generally blitzing a lot less. After Todd Bowles blitzed Cousins like crazy, the Chargers blitzed only 16 times on 55 drop-backs, Philly sent extra rushers 10 of 46 times.
Offensive lines are considered weak-link systems, meaning that the success of the unit can only be as good as its weakest part. The Vikings’ right guard position has been just that. Ed Ingram has allowed 13 pressures and three sacks in three games, which is six more pressures allowed than the next highest on the team and all the other linemen combined have given up three sacks total. Ingram has graded 49.0 out of 100 by PFF in pass blocking, which ranks him 50th of 62 guards. No other Viking lineman ranks below 20th at their position, even backup center Austin Schlottmann.
It stands to reason to suggest if the Vikings replace the weak link, they have a shot at being a legitimately good offensive line. Their tackles are elite players and starting center Garrett Bradbury appears on his way back to the starting lineup (he was limited at practice on Wednesday).
Enter: Dalton Risner.
The Vikings continue to play coy on whether he’s going to play and where he’s going to play but anything outside of him starting at right guard would be puzzling. While Ezra Cleveland’s history has been filled with ups and downs, he’s only allowed six pressures on 155 pass blocking snaps this year.
“This week is another huge step for [Risner],” head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “He’s absorbing things really well. We’re going to get him in there with the first group throughout practice and have a real calculated mindset for reps for that whole interior group…we’ll see a rotation in practice and I really do mean what I say when we’re going to as a coaching staff collectively decide the best five we can put out there and how our depth looks in the event that we have to play a new combination of guys which has come up a lot.”
Risner, who has never ranked below 20th in pass blocking as a pro, said that he was able to take a big step in the last week toward understanding the playbook.
“I’m feeling really, really good,” Risner said. “Every single day gets better and better. I’ve been in [the playbook] knee deep for a week and I feel good about it. There’s still a few things here and there where sometimes you hear it and you’re like, ‘OK let me go get refreshed on that.’ Once you get the playbook down you want to start building that camaraderie with the other offensive linemen around you and the calls they make against different fronts and if there’s an audible or shift or or blitz or motion that changes the look…for me it’s about getting to the next level.”
Risner said that he was preparing to play both right and left guard while waiting to be signed.
“I always tell coaches that I’ll go anywhere but left tackle might be a little shaky,” Risner joked. “It helps a ton. That’s always beneficial for not only myself but the coaches. You want to be versatile…Obviously left guard is where I feel the best because I played four years in the NFL there so I feel really comfortable there. I’m trying to work as much right guard as I can.”
Concerning the potential switch from left to right, Risner said…
“It’s just flip-flopping everything, everything you’re doing at left guard you just do the opposite of it. Getting that down, making sure I’m using the different hands, the different feet. One play you might be at left, one play you might be at right so it’s being ready to make that quick move.”
If Risner does start this week versus Carolina, it will be an uphill battle. The Panthers may have some shortcomings on their roster but defensive line is not one of them. PFF ranks them as the fifth best pass rushing unit in the NFL and they have 10 total sacks. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown ranks as the seventh best defensive tackle in football and edge rusher Brian Burns is the 10th best graded pass rusher at his position.
O’Connell noted on Wednesday about the challenges of evaluating linemen during the season as opposed to during training camp and left the door open to the possibility of rotating Risner into the game to see where he stands.
“We’ve got to try and invest in communication as a staff about what Kup [offensive line coach Chris Kuper] thinks, [offensive coordinator Wes Phillips], myself and then just try and make the best decision,” O’Connell said. “If that decision is trying to get a series or two – sometimes like you’ll do with a running back, you predetermine a series, or receiver or guys on defense are always getting rolled in there — I would not be opposed to that at all.”
There isn’t much time to experiment. The Vikings are sitting at 0-3 and can’t afford to drop another game and have any hopes left to reach the postseason. And if there is any chance at bucking history, it’s going to happen because the offense thrives and cuts down on the significant negative plays, a number of which have been caused by the weak link on the offensive line.
