How long will it take the Timberwolves new roster to gel is a major storyline entering the 2022-23 season, but the ease of their schedule the first month-and-a-half of the season should help them put a significant dent in their expected win total.
Vegas has the Timberwolves win total over/under at 48.5 – tied for ninth highest with the Grizzlies, Heat and Mavericks. It’s only five wins shy of the highest win total, held by the Boston Celtics at 53.5.
And the Timberwolves should get off to a very fast start. In fact, if they don’t start the season 6-1 or 7-0 it’ll be a massive disappointment because they face the Thunder twice, Spurs three times, and the Jazz and Lakers once each.
The Spurs have the NBA’s lowest over/under (22.5); the Thunder are second worst (23.5); followed by the Jazz (24.5). The Lakers sit at 45.5, and with LeBron James and Anthony Davis expected to be healthy to start the season, they’ll be a challenge when they visit Target Center Oct. 28. Still, the Timberwolves should be better than the Lakers – especially at home.
Of Minnesota’s 22 games from the Oct. 19 season opener until December, only 10 foes are expected to contend for a playoff spot. The rest should be wins because that’s what good teams do: beat worse teams at home and on the road.
The 10 difficult games Oct. 19 to December:
- Oct. 25 vs. LA Lakers – it’s at home so the Wolves should win
- Nov. 1 at Phoenix – the Suns were 32-9 at home last season
- Nov. 4 vs. Milwaukee – another home game but Giannis will be tough
- Nov. 9 vs. Phoenix – again at home, but a loss to the Suns isn’t awful
- Nov. 11 at Memphis – Wolves fans know all too well about playing in Memphis
- Nov. 13 at Cleveland – extremely talented roster with a 47.5 over/under win total
- Nov. 19 at Philadelphia – Harden, Embiid and Maxey will be tough
- Nov. 27 vs. Golden State – the champs’ first visit to Minneapolis this season
- Nov. 30 vs. Memphis – playoff rematch will again be tough
But when you break it down by how Vegas views each of Minnesota’s opponents, only four have a higher win total over/under than the Wolves.
- Oklahoma City (2): 23.5
- Utah: 24.5
- San Antonio (3): 22.5
- LA Lakers: 45.5
- Phoenix (2): 52.5
- Milwaukee: 52.5
- Houston: 23.5
- New York: 38.5
- Memphis (2): 48.5
- Cleveland: 47.5
- Orlando: 26.5
- Philadelphia: 50.5
- Miami: 48.5
- Indiana: 23.5
- Charlotte: 36.5
- Golden State: 51.5
- Washington: 35.5
So what’s acceptable? Starting 12-10 certainly won’t be looked at as a success.
They should have 12 wins in the bag in their games against Oklahoma City, Utah, San Antonio, Houston, New York, Orlando, Indiana, Charlotte and Washington. A loss to any of those, home or away, would be disappointing.
That leaves those aforementioned 10 difficult games. They can’t lose them all, and if they did they’d be counted out as a true contender. If they go .500 in those 10 and take care of business against weaker competition they would have 17 wins and only five losses entering December.
You get the picture. If the Wolves are as good as most think, then they should enter December with one of the best records in the NBA, thanks in large part to a very soft schedule to begin the season.
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