The Detroit Lions established their “winning window” on Monday when they signed quarterback Jared Goff to a contract extension worth $53 million per year.
The structure of Goff’s four-year extension with $170 million has not yet been reported but it isn’t a stretch to guess that the first few seasons of the deal are going to be manageable for Detroit before their core becomes very expensive.
In 2025, the Lions’ recently-signed stars Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown will have very reasonable salary cap hits of $9.5 million and $13.9 million but in 2026 those jump up to $28.0 million and $33.1 million, respectively (per OTC). That’s when things will get more tricky for the Lions to work around their expensive stars.
That doesn’t mean Detroit’s franchise will sink into Lake Michigan in 2026, particularly since they will still have core young players on rookie deals like Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs but once star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson gets a new contract in 2026, the Lions will either need to fill out the roster with hits on lots more draft picks and find under-the-radar deals in free agency or they are going to run into the same issues as the 2020-2022 Vikings faced with expensive veterans around an expensive quarterback contract.
Goff has proven to be plenty capable of making the Lions a Super Bowl contender, winning 21 of his last 34 games and the Detroit offense has ranked in the top five in points in each of the past two seasons. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson staying on Dan Campbell’s staff improves the chances that Goff can sustain his performance.
On the defensive side, Detroit struggled last season ranking 23rd in points allowed and while their meltdown in the NFC Championship was largely blamed on a failed fourth down, it was the defense that let the 49ers steamroll them late in the game to victory. In response, the Lions went all-in this offseason signing Carlton Davis and DJ Reader to short-term deals that include the vaunted void years.
Again, that doesn’t mean Detroit is certain to be dusted after 2025 but after the next two years it becomes difficult to project exactly what the roster will look like around Goff’s enormous deal.
What does that mean for the Minnesota Vikings?
First, that their edge on the Lions, who have been masterfully built by GM Brad Holmes since tanking in 2021, is going to start with JJ McCarthy’s contract. His salary cap hits are expected to be in the range of $4-$7 million during the span of his rookie deal, which goes from 2024-2027. There are currently 14 quarterbacks with projected salary cap hits over $40 million for the 2025 season.
The gap between rookie QB contracts and average veteran starting deals is growing by the offseason. In 2023 there were only three QBs who played under cap hits over $30 million. If McCarthy starts in 2025 and turns in a performance worthy of the top 12 QBs in the NFL, the Vikings will get a surplus value in the ballpark of $35 million.
Currently OverTheCap.com estimates the Vikings will have around $70 million in cap space in 2025 but they are likely to carry over a significant chunk of 2024 space if they don’t make another substantial move and they will have the option to restructure Brian O’Neill’s deal. He is projected to hold the highest cap hit on the team with $26 million. Justin Jefferson’s cap hits for his expected extension aren’t likely to be enormous until a few years into the deal based on contracts other top receivers have signed (St. Brown’s cap hit jumps in 2026 after he signed this offseason).
It appears that the Vikings will have an edge when it comes to chasing 2025 and 2026 free agents but that doesn’t mean they will be the only teams in position to chase down the Lions in the NFC via cap advantage. The Arizona Cardinals just loaded up on draft picks to surround Kyler Murray in the same way that Detroit did surrounding Goff in 2021-2023. The Cards are projected well over $100 million in 2025. The Commanders, Bears and Packers are all in the top eight estimated space in 2025 as well. If the Vikings want to make the most of their expected cap space next offseason, they will need to make a good argument for being a team on the rise that can convince free agents to sign there rather than other teams with money.
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
— Antoine Winfield Jr. became the highest paid safety in the NFL on Monday with a four-year, $84.1 million contract. The first takeaway is that the Vikings picked a heck of a good time to sign Josh Metellus to an extension last year.
Takeaway No. 2 is that I can’t remember another player that literally everyone knew was going to be good. Back then I was doing radio on 1500ESPN and I had Matt Bowen and Ryan Clark on from ESPN and both of them went in deep depth about how much they thought Winfield Jr. was a lock to become a star. Gophers fans pleaded with the Vikings to pick him. Instead they went in a different direction and quickly regretted that.
No. 3 is just wondering aloud if these big contract extensions being done by teams right now are a sign that Justin Jefferson could be next.
— The Vikings have signed tight end Sammis Reyes after a tryout in rookie camp. He was born in Chile and played special teams for the Jaguars in 2021. His background is pretty wild. He played basketball for four different colleges and then signed up for NFL’s the International Player Pathway Program despite having never played football. He spent time with Washington and Chicago before getting on the field with Jacksonville.
Reyes is still part of the international program in signing with the Vikings. If you are wondering why teams keep bringing him in, look no farther than his size/athleticism combo. He is 6-foot-5, 260 pounds, runs a 4.65 40-yard dash and benched 31 reps. Those numbers are very close to Gronk. He will be an interesting player to watch throughout the summer.
