MINNEAPOLIS — Justin Jefferson looked like the Cleveland Cavs version of LeBron James against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
With his team trailing 17-7 with 1:48 remaining in the first half, he took over the game. On second-and-3 from the 32-yard line, Jefferson made a flying catch across the middle for 22 yards. The next two plays were an incomplete pass and a sack that lost nine yards. So on third-and-19, Jefferson got open and grabbed a 29-yard pass to put the Vikings in scoring position. One play later, quarterback Nick Mullens rolled out and heaved the ball in his general direction. Jefferson out-muscled the cornerback and made a diving catch in the back of the end zone. Three plays, 77 yards, all JJ.
Somehow that wasn’t even his best work.
With the Vikings trailing 30-24, Jefferson single-handedly kept the game alive. First, on second-and-10 at the Viking 33-yard line when Mullens was strip-sacked and Jefferson bolted from the downfield where he was running his route all the way to the backfield to jump on the football. On the next play, third-and-27, Mullens floated a pass into the heavens and Jefferson went LeBron Mode and leaped over two Lions defenders to bring it down. Shades of his famed Buffalo catch last year.
“Before that play, I told Nick (Mullens), ‘no matter what it is, just throw it over,’” Jefferson said. “I just have that same attitude on every single ball that’s in the air. I just want to make a play for my team, make the drive, continue to go. I know I’m a momentum-shifter on this team in the big plays that I make and the crazy catches that I make.”
After a 26-yard catch from Brandon Powell, the Vikings stood 30 yards away from a wild comeback with 58 seconds remaining. Mullens rolled out, saw Jefferson open and chucked the ball toward him again. But this time the ball hit turbulence and got picked off as Jefferson was trying to readjust. The loss, per New York Times playoff simulator, dropped the Vikings’ playoff odds to just 26% heading into the final two weeks.
Following the game, Mullens explained what happened on the final play.
“I could either have put it like further out or right on him, and tried to put it right on him and the ball didn’t come out exactly how I wanted it to,” he said. “That’s unfortunate the way it ended like that. Had a chance to win it at the end and we didn’t get it done.”
In the locker room, Jefferson touched on the subject that can’t be avoided when talking about the 2023 season: If Kirk Cousins was playing quarterback, the Vikings very likely win that game.
“I think it goes to show the rest of the world the type of player Kirk is,” Jefferson said. “This is a tough league and not everybody is fit for this job so it’s tough not having [Cousins] out there, the captain he is, the player he is, he’s a great player.”
Jefferson followed up by saying “that doesn’t take away from Nick” but it isn’t hard to imagine how different things would have played out had Mullens not thrown four interceptions in the loss — all of which were simply on bad throws to open receivers.
The Vikings’ losses since Cousins tore his Achilles against Green Bay in Week eight have been by one, two, three and six points. In the last two L’s since Mullens took over, they have totaled more than 700 yards passing and posted 48 points, which is one point off their 2022 average points per game. That comes in major part to Mullens understanding the offense and being able to find his open receivers for explosive plays. Mullens ended with 11.6 yards per attempt, which is the 11th best single game yards per attempt total this year (min. 20 attempts). Other quarterbacks are 9-2 when that happens.
But interceptions are back breakers. On the final drive, Jefferson could have parked an 18-wheeler in the space he created. Early in the game the Vikings failed to take advantage of a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble because Mullens got picked on fourth down and then the Lions turned grabbed another INT late in the second quarter that wasn’t thrown far enough to lead Addison to an explosive play. Addison got hurt on that play and Detroit turned it into a touchdown.
“There was space out there,” Mullens said of the pick. “I didn’t make an accurate enough throw.”
Not making accurate enough throws was the story of the day.
We do not have the angel from It’s a Wonderful Life to drop down and show us what life would have been like with Cousins playing quarterback on Sunday or in the other tight losses the Vikings have had along the way but he is one of the more accurate QBs in the NFL and we can guarantee the turnovers would not have happened. Cousins has only thrown four INTs once in his career and has only six games with three interceptions out of 145 career starts.
Mullens has 19 career starts and at least two interceptions in nine of those games. When he started for San Francisco in 2020, he led the NFL in turnover-worthy play percentage. It should be noted that he also fumbled twice (both recovered by the Vikings) and tried his darndest to throw another interception at the goal line on the opening drive.
The additional problem with the turnovers is asking the defense to carry a heavy load. The Vikings’ defense, which was without cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. and Mekhi Blackmon got banged up during the game, was on the field for 77 plays and 38:22 to the Vikings offense’s 21:38. The giveaways forced the Vikings to play from behind the entire game, which explains in part only rushing for 17 yards on 11 attempts.
Certainly the Vikings had issues at times being consistent offensively with Cousins in charge and they lost games in the past in similar fashion to Sunday’s disappointing L along the way but it’s impossible not to wonder what this specific team and situation would have done at full strength. The last time we saw Cousins he was putting together one of his best career games at Lambeau Field and that was without Jefferson. With JJ back playing dominating football, would they have been the one celebrating a division title and not Dan Campbell’s team?
Maybe some of the same stuff would have happened with close losses and the defense wearing down as the season went along. We called it the “Kirk Coaster” at times, after all. Still if they can have six different receivers catch a 20-plus yard pass with Mullens throwing the ball, how can we not believe they would have been super dangerous with QB1 — who still ranks eighth among all QBs by PFF this year, by the way.
The nature of backup quarterbacks is that they can usually do enough on occasion to show the upside of an offense but can’t do it consistently. If the upside of this Vikings offense, which will be staying together going forward assuming the team signs Jefferson to an extension, is games like against Detroit only without the interceptions, then they have something special on their hands.
Does that mean it has to be with Cousins? That decision is closing in and it seems like absence will make the Vikings brass’s hearts grow fonder. Though it could also be interpreted this way: Mullens’ effectiveness on non-interceptions shows that a more physically gifted QB could bring all the explosives without the implosions.
Of course, there are still two more games to go. The NYT playoff machine thinks if the Vikings go 2-for-2, they have an excellent chance at still making the postseason. That puts everything on Mullens’ shoulders for next week as they face off with the Packers, who gave up 30 points to the Panthers on Sunday. Yes, somehow this thing is still alive despite all the potholes the Vikings have hit.
There will be the question of whether Kevin O’Connell should dial it back for Mullens and try to play more conservatively. O’Connell said after the game that he didn’t believe that trying to put together long, methodical drives made much sense with the struggling run game.
“We’ll take a look at all those things and adjust our game plan accordingly moving forward,” he said. “In the end, we’re always going to do what we think is best to try to win the football game in the moment.”
In this moment, the Vikings do not have a quarterback that can be relied upon no matter the strategy so they have elected to play the variance game and hope the deep balls connect enough to give them a chance.
What if they hadn’t needed to put their season on hoping the downfield dice rolls land on the right numbers and instead could have been running their complete offense with a top pass blocking unit and Jefferson returning to look like LeBron James? We’ll never know. Or maybe we’ll get to find out next week when the pendulum swings back in the backup QB’s favor. Or maybe we’ll find out next year when it’s a more talented QB under center with the same personnel and explosive passing scheme.
