Into the great wide open, as Tom Petty would say.
There is some irony in the fact that the biggest thing going on in football right now is the release of the Netflix series Quarterback, which features a behind-the-scenes look at the winningest season of Kirk Cousins’s career, yet he’s only a few weeks removed from declaring that he won’t be talking contract with the team again until next March.
When the Vikings restructured their veteran QB’s contract rather than signing him to an extension, suddenly all the outcomes for the future at quarterback became possible. A draft pick? A disgruntled veteran? An extension for Cousins?
How does one go about predicting what will happen by the start of the 2024 season at the Vikings’ most important position? How will Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell handle the decision that will undoubtedly shape how their era in Minnesota is remembered?
Let’s try to figure it out.
The first question we have to ask the crystal ball is what it would take for Cousins to return to the negotiating table after the 2023 season. Certainly when he says that he isn’t talking contract until next year, it sounds like goodbye but there has to be a set of circumstances that could align for his return.
One example of this happening was the Baltimore Ravens with Joe Flacco in 2012. The Ravens and their QB negotiated during the summer of 2012 and couldn’t come to an agreement on an extension so Flacco decided to play the season out without a deal for 2013. Throughout the year it was still unclear whether he would be on the team after 2012 but he put together one of the most miraculous playoff runs in NFL history, posting a 117.2 QB rating in four postseason games en route to the Super Bowl. He became the richest player in NFL history before free agency opened in 2013.
The clearest outcome for Cousins staying would be if the Vikings make a trip to the Super Bowl. If he wins it, Cousins can have a contract for life, a statue in front of US Bank Stadium, a sandwich named after him at every restaurant and a chain bigger than Flava Flav’s clock to wear around the locker room.
But if that doesn’t happen, what’s the bar? What type of season would he need to have in order for the management to be convinced to pay up? And would he sign at that point or hit free agency and cash in from a desperate team?
From the team’s perspective, they would need to be convinced by his performance that age is not going to be a factor as Cousins gets into his late 30s.
While last season was magical in many ways for Cousins, there were some statistical markers that would raise suspicion about how much longer he can play at the same level as the past five seasons in Minnesota. His rating, QBR, PFF grade and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt dipped and he took an absolute beating. An interesting factoid: There have been 34 seasons in which a QB who was 35 years or older won 10-plus games since 2000 and 25 belong to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Other appearances include Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner. Kerry Collins did it with 12 touchdowns.
So team success short of a (very) deep playoff run isn’t necessarily enough for the Vikings to lock themselves into Cousins for any longer. It would have to be paired with a performance and health that suggested he wasn’t headed toward the age cliff any time soon. Evidence of that for players his age is hard to find.
Plus we have to consider Cousins’s standpoint. After signing a short extension this year and getting a lack of buy-in from management again, would he decide that the Vikings had their chance and take his talents elsewhere even if they wanted him back?
The margin seems thin for scenarios in which he returns if Cousins does not sign an extension in training camp, which still remains possible despite his comments after minicamp.
So what happens if he leaves?
The Vikings will have three potential directions in that case. They either draft a quarterback in 2024, acquire a veteran or enter some type of bridge QB scenario.
The first option appears to be the most likely, even if the Vikings have a competitive season. The No. 1 pick probably won’t be up for grabs but trades from the back half of the first round haven’t been that unusual in recent years. The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes by trading from 27 to 10 and the Bears moved from 20th to 11th to take Justin Fields. It can be done, if they are committed.
In the last two drafts, they have proven not to be committed to the available prospects, passing on Kenny Pickett and Will Levis. They have chosen to be sure rather than taking a swing at a prospect QB but if Cousins leaves they could be forced to pick someone they do not fully believe in. Ironically, that’s not guaranteed to be a bad thing since drafts are random and QBs are impossible to predict. Though it’s hard to believe they would actually throw caution to the Randomness Gods and take a QB they didn’t like anyway.
If there wasn’t anyone available who they wanted or the first-round talents are off the board, then what?
The most bold option to be tossed around is Kyler Murray. His team is in a complete rebuild with a coach who has no experience and they just cut the best receiver he’s ever had. If the Cards go 3-14, it would be very hard for them to pass on Caleb Williams to stick with Murray. The Vikings’ cap situation doesn’t exactly scream out that they could afford his massive deal but pairing him with Justin Jefferson might be enticing. Let’s also not forget that in 2021 he finished as PFF’s seventh best QB.
It’s not easy to spot other disgruntled signal callers who might be asking out, aside from the oft-proposed Trey Lance deal.
Then there’s the bridge concept. The most groan-worthy of the options at QB. The 2024 free agent list includes Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Huntley, Gardner Minshew, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. None of those options are appealing but we have seen teams forced into rolling with those types when all else fails at QB.
That simply cannot happen in Justin Jefferson’s prime. They cannot be like Washington’s whole recent franchise history at QB. There needs to be a concrete answer.
What’s it going to be? This is, after all, predictions week.
Drafting a quarterback should be considered the runaway favorite. It’s hard to believe that Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell would let three years of their regime go by without taking a swing at their future quarterback. The only issue is draft capital and opportunity but it’s likely that more QBs will emerge than just Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Outside of a strange 2022 draft, the last time fewer than three QBs went in the first round was 2015.
Keeping Cousins seems more likely than the Vikings convincing the Cardinals to trade Kyler Murray within the conference or being able to afford him but we are talking about a Vikings head coach who was in Los Angeles when they traded within the NFC for Matthew Stafford. Don’t count out that angle or a play for San Francisco’s quarterbacks at least being explored.
No matter what the reasoning, if they end up with anything outside of those options, it’s a failure. Of course, we might have thought that about going into a must-win season with Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham or Sam Bradford and Case Keenum so you never know with this franchise.
The only thing you can ever really predict with the Vikings’ QB situation is that it never ceases to surprise us.
