A data-driven reminder that it is a good idea to extend Jefferson
There are so many good wide receivers these days, doesn’t that make Justin Jefferson replaceable?
That question seems to pop up every time someone is talking about the Minnesota Vikings negotiating a long-term contract extension with their All-Pro wide receiver.
On some levels in makes sense. The Kansas City Chiefs traded superstar Tyreek Hill and then won the next two Super Bowls and we saw 27 receivers pick up over 1,000 yards last season. But it should be mentioned that the Dolphins offense went from ranking 25th in yards and 22nd in points before they acquired Hill to No. 2 in points and No. 1 in yards last season. More importantly, we need to keep in mind that not all wide receivers with good fantasy stats are created equal.
Let’s take a look at what the data says about how Jefferson impacts the Vikings offense versus other wide receivers and how the Vikings can work around a large contract by using some visual aids….
We start off with this, from Football Insights on Twitter. This is a chart of PFF data showing NFL wide receiver performance against man and zone coverage since 2014 in terms of yards per route run.
Jefferson isn’t just in rare air, he’s in his own air. The only players close to performing at his level against both types of coverages are Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown. Zone coverage has slightly slowed down receivers like AJ Brown, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase and man coverage has kept Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown from his level.
It shouldn’t just be notable that Jefferson is head of all the other great wide receivers. Look at the good receivers. Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins.
A new analytics company, Field Vision Sports, recently started putting out data showing how players performed against specific coverages. When we dive deeper, it becomes clearer that there is no answer to the NFL’s top receiver. When opponents played the most common coverages, cover-1, cover-2 and cover-3 during his fully-healthy 2022 season, Jefferson ranked at the top of the league against all of them.
It’s hard to put a value on Vikings quarterbacks having the ability to target Jefferson against any coverage. Here’s what we can say: Jefferson has a sample size of targets that are equal to around one full season of throws from a quarterback with 558 total passes his way over the last four years. On those throws, per PFF, Vikings QBs have 5,899 yards (10.5 yards per attempt), 30 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 112.1 quarterback rating.
Since 2020 there have only been 12 receivers targeted more than 500 times in the NFL and Jefferson ranks No. 1 among them in yards per target by 0.7 yards over the next best (AJ Brown). He is a full yard better per target than CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp.
If Jefferson had one year under his belt as being super effective against all defensive plans then we might wonder if defenses would eventually figure him out. But his consistency has been nearly unparalleled. Here are his PFF grades over his first four seasons in the NFL:
You are wondering: How many receivers have four straight years of 90-plus PFF grades? Julio Jones. That’s the list. Calvin Johnson if we round up from 89.9. Davante Adams had three such seasons in a row. Antonio Brown had three 90-plus seasons and an 89.1 mixed in. DeAndre Hopkins had a run with three out of four years.
That type of consistency isn’t just hard to replace, it’s nearly impossible to replace.
But how much is it really worth?
We like to use yearly salaries because they are much easier to process than salary cap numbers. For example, AJ Brown makes $32 million per year, making him the highest paid receiver in the NFL. Gotcha. Brown signed a deal in 2022 for four years, $100 million but recently extended his contract only two years into the deal. Brown’s cap hits since joining the Eagles have been $8.3 million and $11.8 million, and for the next two years they will be $17.6 million and $23.5 million. None of those numbers approach his per-year salary.
Nick Bosa’s contract looks like this (via OverTheCap.com):
Bosa’s cap numbers through 2024 are very manageable before exploding in 2026. However, using OTC’s restructure formula, the 49ers will be able to reduce those numbers down to around $25 million. They can also use the same extension path that the Eagles deployed with Brown.
When Jefferson’s contract gets compared with Kirk Cousins’s massive deals of the past, the missing piece is flexibility. Cousins signed short-term, fully guaranteed deals that made it difficult to hide money under the couch cushions. The longer the Vikings can make Jefferson’s contract, the more options to keep his cap hit manageable they will have.
We also need to keep in mind that the salary cap is never going backward. It will continue to grow so long as the NFL keeps selling TV rights. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the salary cap has gone from $177.2 million when the Vikings signed Cousins to a three-year, $84 million guaranteed contract to $255.4 million this year.
Teams who win always have expensive players. When the Rams raised the Lombardi Trophy, Aaron Donald was in the middle of a six-year, $135 million extension. The Chiefs extended Chris Jones’s deal for five years, $158 million last offseason. The 49ers did deals with Samuel and Bosa and already paid George Kittle, Trent Williams and took on Christian McCaffrey’s extension from Carolina.
Not to mention the Vikings will have the cap space. It’s not always easy to look into the cap future because things can change but right now the Vikings are scheduled to have the fifth most cap space in 2025 and their quarterback JJ McCarthy will be making about $45 million less than top quarterbacks. Had the Vikings extended Cousins, the Jefferson contract would have been a lot more challenging. Now the only players scheduled to make over $10 million in 2025 are Brian O’Neill, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and TJ Hockenson.
The bottom line is: When you put Jefferson’s numbers and the Vikings’ options with the salary cap on paper it becomes clear that replacing him would be incredibly difficult considering his ability to defeat all coverages and consistently perform. Plus an extension will not do serious harm the team’s flexibility within McCarthy’s rookie contract window. Signing him a no-brainer.
Oh, by the way, ESPN’s Kevin Seifert reported on Tuesday that the Vikings are still planning to extend Jefferson despite whatever “buzz” is out there in the rumor mill.
