The Minnesota Vikings’ 2022 season was a walking contradiction. The metrics that indicate team strength told a different story than the win-loss record. When you look closer at the actual games, however, you can put a finger on one key factor that propelled the Vikings to so many close victories: They often had the better quarterback.
If we compare Kirk Cousins vs. his ‘22 opponents, the Vikings’ QB finished with a higher PFF grade than all of them except Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and somehow Andy Dalton. The Vikings faced backup QBs in Weeks 4, 5, 7, 10 and 17. By ESPN’s QBR metric, which factors game situation and gives a lot of credit to running QBs, Cousins matched up with No. 2, 4, 5, 6 but the next best after that was Kyler Murray at 19. The rest were either lower or didn’t have enough snaps to qualify.
And to Cousins’ credit, he either made one more play or one fewer mistake and found his way to eight game-winning drives.
This year the Vikings have a first place schedule, which comes along with more big-name quarterbacks on the slate. As the league gets set to announce the full schedule on Thursday night, let’s take a look at how Cousins matches up against his opposing QBs this year….
Chicago Bears, Justin Fields
2022 PFF grade: 23rd
2022 QBR: 17th
X-Factor: Fields’ dynamic running and improved weapons
Justin Fields did enough last year to convince the Bears to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick and stick with him, in part because he found his stride as a runner. The former Ohio State standout ran for over 1,100 yards at 7.1 yards per carry, numbers that have only been recently approached by the likes of Lamar Jackson and Mike Vick. However, his issues with throwing effectively were still apparent. He did improve his QB rating to 85.2 but that’s only a shade above Trevor Siemian’s career mark. Fields also took a ton of sacks, which crushed his efficiency.
The Bears acquired DJ Moore and beefed up their offensive line to leave no excuses for their young quarterback. Which way things will go from here is a mystery. We have seen some highly touted QBs take big steps in Year 3 (like Josh Allen) and others continue with the same old struggles (Sam Darnold). Whether Fields can outplay Cousins really depends on which side of that he lands on. Until he shows it, the proven QB gets the benefit of the doubt.
Advantage: Cousins
Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love
2022 PFF grade: N/A
2022 QBR: N/A
X-Factor: Love’s inexperience
Nobody knows what we are going to get from Jordan Love this year, including the Packers and Jordan Love. He has just 83 career passes, 21 of which came last year when he showed some glimmers of talent. The Packers wouldn’t have stuck with him as Aaron Rodgers’ replacement if they weren’t at least intrigued by the idea he could be their long-term solution but that’s all we have to work with in terms of information right now. Again, the multi-time Pro Bowler has the clear edge until proven otherwise.
Advantage: Cousins
Detroit Lions, Jared Goff
2022 PFF grade: 20th
2022 QBR: 5th
X-Factor: Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme
Cousins vs. Goff has turned in some incredible performances from both over the years. Goff averages 299 yards per game and has a 101.6 career QB rating against the Vikings and that’s despite his rough first outing against Mike Zimmer’s No. 1 defense in 2017. After leading a top-five offense last year, he appears to have found the perfect fit with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who schemed receivers wide open all over the field against the Vikings last year at Ford Field. Of course, Goff isn’t perfect. He isn’t a playmaker and is prone to the occasional what-the-heck throw or sack. These two veterans fall into the same scheme-and-situation dependent category.
Advantage: Even
Las Vegas Raiders, Jimmy Garoppolo
2022 PFF grade: 22nd
2022 QBR: 16th
X-Factor: Davante Adams
Speaking of scheme-and-situation dependent quarterbacks, hello again Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders reunited Jimmy G with Josh McDaniels, which might yield better results than his fit with Derek Carr so long as Garoppolo can stay healthy. He knows how McDaniels operates and inherits one of the most unstoppable receivers in the NFL. Davante Adams, albeit with Aaron Rodgers, has faced the Vikings 15 times in his career and caught 93 passes for 1,050 yards and scored 13 touchdowns. With a young secondary, he’s going to have a chance to go off. Still, Cousins’ weapons overall are better and he’s more durable.
Advantage: Slight edge to Cousins
Los Angeles Chargers, Justin Herbert
2022 PFF grade: 11th
2022 QBR: 11th
X-Factor: Kellen Moore taking over as OC
While Herbert didn’t repeat his 5,000-yard 2021 season that catapulted him into the elite-QB conversation, he still overcame injuries all over the Charger lineup to lead his team to the postseason. Now he has a pass-happy offensive coordinator who dialed up plays for three top-six offenses in four years with the Cowboys. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Herbert regain a top-five QB title this year.
Advantage: Herbert
Denver Broncos, Russell Wilson
2022 PFF grade: 29th
2022 QBR: 27th
X-Factor: Sean Payton
Was that Russell Wilson or Vikings Donovan McNabb playing last season in Denver? Wilson had a shocking drop from posting a 103.1 QB rating despite a hand injury in 2021 to a backup-level performance with the Broncos. Was it Nate Hackett’s offense? Was it injuries? Receivers? Sudden loss of mobility? It’s hard to say. Maybe he will bounce back under Sean Payton, who squeezed every last ounce of talent out of Drew Brees in his latter years. After what we just saw from Wilson though, Cousins gets the clear advantage.
Advantage: Cousins
Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes
2022 PFF grade: 2nd
2022 QBR: 1st
X-Factor: Sheer greatness
There isn’t much to talk about here. Mahomes is the best quarterback of the generation.
Advantage: Mahomes
Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Burrow
2022 PFF grade: 3rd
2022 QBR: 10th
X-Factor: The Bengals’ offensive line
Joe Burrow had his breakout game in Week 1 of the 2021 season against the Vikings and never looked back. He graded as the best QB in the game in ‘21 and third best in ‘22 and there’s an argument to be made that he improved from Year 2 to 3 because he cut down on bad sacks and thrived despite missing Ja’Marr Chase for a period of the year. Burrow’s accuracy, intelligence and pocket presence are all elite and it doesn’t hurt to have three terrific receivers either. The only crack in the foundation is that the Bengals ranked 30th in pass blocking grade last season. Burrow can overcome the pressure but it at least gives a glimmer of hope to opponents.
Advantage: Burrow
Philadelphia Eagles, Jalen Hurts
2022 PFF grade: 4th
2022 QBR: 4th
X-Factor: The Eagles’ offensive line
Philly’s O-line is on the list for the opposite reason as Cincinnati. While there’s no downplaying Hurts’ talent, the fact that the Eagles ranked No. 1 in pass blocking and 5th in run blocking by PFF’s metrics certainly didn’t hurt his rise to stardom. The Vikings were manhandled by the Eagles in the trenches last year and they lost Dalvin Tomlinson this offseason, which is likely to make it even tougher to stop the run. Hurts also has great receiving options and he improves every year. He is a legitimate MVP candidate again.
Advantage: Hurts
San Francisco 49ers, Brock Purdy (?)
2022 PFF grade: 15th
2022 QBR: N/A
X-Factor: Kyle Shanahan’s ability to scheme receivers open
It’s hard to be sure that Purdy will be the quarterback when the Vikings face the 49ers. If it’s Trey Lance or Sam Darnold then the clear edge goes to Cousins. With Purdy it’s not clear even if he does play. He had only a tiny sample of success but appeared to fit brilliantly with Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and added a dash of playmaking of his own. The 49ers have a monster group of receiving options and a good offensive line to boot. Cousins is the more proven quarterback so he gets the nod, though it wouldn’t be a shock of Purdy was the second coming of Jimmy G and led high-scoring offenses.
Advantage: Slight edge to Cousins
Atlanta Falcons, Desmond Ridder
2022 PFF grade: N/A
2022 QBR: N/A
X-Factor: Arthur Smith’s play-action
The Falcons’ 2022 third-round pick started four games and threw 115 passes. That’s hardly enough to draw any conclusions but the results were not good. He graded a poor 55.9 (out of 100) by PFF and averaged just 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta is buying a next step for him and is surrounding their sophomore QB with a very, very good running game. We saw Ryan Tannehill’s game take a big step behind a great running back and play-action passes. Maybe that will happen for the Falcons with Ridder. Until it does, big advantage goes to the Vikings.
Advantage: Cousins
Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young
2022 PFF grade: N/A
2022 QBR: N/A
X-Factor: Young’s playmaking
The No. 1 overall pick played at a very high level in college and may have a chance to quickly bring his wizardry to Carolina with Frank Reich guiding him. The problem is that the Panthers do not have much to work with on the offensive side outside of ex-Viking Adam Thielen and the adjustment could be tricky in Year 1 for the undersized quarterback.
Advantage: Cousins
New Orleans Saints, Derek Carr
2022 PFF grade: 27th
2022 QBR: 14th
X-Factor: Improved supporting cast
Last year was not easy for the long-time Raider but his long track record of quality QB play puts him right in the same range as Cousins. In New Orleans he will be getting a fresh start with a decent supporting cast. Any given week either of them can play like MVPs or leave fans scratching their heads.
Advantage: Even
Final tally:
— Cousins has the advantage in seven games
— Two games we can give a slight edge to Cousins
— Two games are even
— Six games feature an opponent with a better resume
What does it mean? Depending on health, the Vikings could have much tougher road when it comes to opposing QBs than last year. It isn’t just that they play more quarterbacks who are terrific (and arguably the top two in the entire NFL), rather than the majority of total games are not an obvious edge (10 out of 17).
However, there are lots of contests on the schedule where Cousins should be the better quarterback and his supporting cast of receivers will have a great argument for being the best in the NFL if Jordan Addison makes a quick transition from college.
