With just over a week until the MLB trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to improve their roster. While most of the headlines have centered around an inconsistent lineup, a contending team can never have enough pitching, which is why the decision to sign Dallas Keuchel has been an intriguing, under-the-radar move.
Keuchel has been dealing after signing a minor league deal with the Twins last month, posting a 0.69 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 26 innings. Keuchel continued his hot streak on Saturday night, allowing two hits and three walks with three strikeouts over six shutout innings in the Saints’ 8-5 loss to the Omaha Storm Chasers on Saturday night.
Mr. Cy Young, @kidkeuchy night is over. He goes 6.0 shutout innings allowing two hits while walking three and striking out three. He throws 73 pitches, 46 for strikes and has just two base runners reach as far as second. Lead 4-0 top 7 pic.twitter.com/IrZzyzJ2cD
— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) July 23, 2023
After signing a minor-league deal with the Twins, many thought this was from the same bargain bin that produced Rich Hill and Dylan Bundy. But Keuchel has performed well and recently declined an opt-out clause in his contract if he didn’t reach the major leagues.
So what could the Twins have in mind and how could Keuchel affect their plans at the trade deadline? There are a couple of options to consider.
Use Keuchel as a spot starter
The most likely scenario is that the Twins could use Keuchel as a spot starter to manage the current rotation’s workload. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are currently on pace to hit their career high in innings pitched and Sonny Gray is on pace to have his largest workload since throwing 175.1 innings for the Cincinnati Reds in 2019.
Even Pablo López could flirt with his career-high of 180 innings pitched last season and Kenta Maeda could need some extra time between starts as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery.
If Keuchel is effective, he can provide some depth the Twins currently don’t have. Louie Varland faded as a spot starter, posting a 6.43 ERA and allowing a .917 OPS in his final five starts before being sent down and Simeon Woods Richardson is likely a year away from the major leagues.
Use Keuchel to move Maeda to the bullpen
There’s also a chance that Keuchel could have a full-time spot in a six-man rotation or allow the Twins to move a starter to the bullpen. The most likely candidate for this is Maeda, who was routinely converted as a reliever as the Los Angeles Dodgers headed down the stretch.
Moving Maeda to the bullpen could have perks for the Twins. While Rocco Baldelli has relied more on his starters to go deep into games, he’s relied heavily on Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran due to the offense’s inability to pull away from their opponents.
Jax has recovered from a rocky start, allowing one earned run and holding opposing hitters to a .116 batting average in his last 22 games. Duran has also had an All-Star caliber season but has already pitched in eight games this month including three straight games coming out of the All-Star break.
The Twins could acquire an extra arm at the trade deadline to give Jax and Duran a reliever but as they found out last season, the price tag isn’t cheap.
This could prompt the Twins to cheat the system and use Maeda as a reliever, where he has posted a 3.19 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and a higher strikeout and strikeout-to-walk rate in 34 career relief appearances.
Use Keuchel to trade an arm for a bat
The Twins need to add some offense at the deadline but they don’t have the assets to match some of the stronger systems in baseball. With Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodriguez likely off limits, the Twins might have to get creative to acquire a bat and it might lead to a trade of one of the current starters in the rotation.
López and Ryan are locked in as starters and trading Maeda probably wouldn’t get much in return, but there is a slight chance the Twins could dangle Ober or Gray as part of a package to help bolster their lineup.
Ober might be the player that gets the most from an opposing team as he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2028. With a 6-4 record and 2.74 ERA, he has the look of an ascending pitcher and could be an available piece if the Twins want to acquire Paul Goldschmidt or Cody Bellinger at the deadline.
But it’s more likely that the Twins would want to keep a young, ascending pitcher, which turns the spotlight to Sonny Gray. Despite making his third All-Star team and allowing two runs over six innings in Saturday’s win over the White Sox, Gray hasn’t won a game since Apr. 30 and has a 4.24 ERA with 32 walks in his last 14 starts (76.1 IP).
An impending free agent, Gray also raised eyebrows over his future when he mentioned the possibility of retirement at the All-Star Game.
“Wouldn’t shock me if I didn’t play any more after this year,” Gray told Twins MLB.com reporter Do-Hyoung Park. “Wouldn’t shock me. Do I want to? Do I think I can? Absolutely. And I can at a very, very high level. It’s not about the money. It’s whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it.”
The Twins could just wait until the end of the season to try and re-sign Gray and receive a draft pick if he decides to go to another team but they could also get in front of a situation and trade Gray, get the bat they need and plug Keuchel into the rotation.
It’s an interesting wrinkle ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline and one that could have ramifications not just for Keuchel but the rest of the Twins’ rotation.
