The Minnesota Twins have a lot of components of a team that could make a postseason run.
They have one of the best starting rotations in baseball;they have a lineup that is improving as several players return from injury; They have depth that gives Rocco Baldelli options; and they an American League playoff picture that doesn’t have a dominant team.
Everything looks solid – except for the bullpen.
The Twins bullpen has seemingly been a weakness throughout the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine era and it’s driven fans to complain about relievers in the same way that Vikings fans complain about guards.
While everyone has screamed for an upgrade dating back to the 2019 Bomba Squad, the Twins have only made marginal moves due the variance that relievers provide and a plan to rely on homegrown talent has seemingly backfired as the Twins come down the stretch.
Jorge Alcala ranked in the 96th percentile of fastball velocity in 2021 before missing a majority of the 2022 season due to injury, but he fell to the 73rd percentile this season and is back on the injured list with a stress fracture on his right forearm.
Jovani Moran is a master of limiting exit velocity and his average of 86.2 mph is in the 91st percentile of relievers this season. But his 14.7 percent walk rate and his 22.8 percent chase rate are both in the third percentile, which gave him a one-way ticket to St. Paul.
Reclamation projects such as Jose de Leon, Oliver Ortega and Brock Stewart flamed out due to injury, but the Twins still were able to rank eighth in bullpen ERA (3.76) at the All-Star Break.
This may have persuaded the front office that a three-week stretch from July 11 to July 31 where the bullpen posted a 4.55 ERA was just a rough patch, but things have gotten worse as the Twins have the seventh-highest ERA (5.06) since the All-Star break.
Some of the names that have contributed to the slump were one-offs as Jordan Luplow threw an inning in Philadelphia and Brent Headrick and Moran are no longer with the team. But Dylan Floro has a 7.00 ERA since coming over from the Miami Marlins for Jorge Lòpez on July 26. Griffin Jax is allowing a 6.48 ERA and a .294/.385/.529 (.914 OPS) batter’s line since the All-Star break.
Even the lights out Jhoan Duran has struggled, allowing a .300/.355/.486 (.841 OPS) batter’s line and a 3.71 ERA since the break. That ERA ranks third on the team however behind Cole Sands (0.00 ERA) and Emilio Pagán (1.86).
The right-hander has been the recipient of a majority of the vitriol regarding the Twins bullpen over the past two seasons, but he’s become their best reliever, allowing a .108/.159/.215 (.374 OPS) batter’s line since the All-Star break.
Still, even if the Twins may be comfortable with Pagán, that doesn’t mean they could have used another reliever at the deadline. With the deadline passed, the Twins are left scrambling and it could lead to some shuffling in the season’s final weeks.
As of right now, the Twins “Plan A” is to hope for a return to health for Brock Stewart. A former top pitching prospect before injuries relegated him to the bullpen, Stewart posted a 0.70 ERA and racked up 35 strikeouts in 25.2 innings before his elbow flared up in June.
Stewart’s rehab has been a slow process and although The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that he threw on Friday and felt good on Saturday, he threw only fastballs and will know more when he can throw all his cut fastball and sweeper off a mound.
The Twins could also hope that Chris Paddack returns from Tommy John surgery next month. Paddack was acquired with Pagán in the March 2022 trade that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the San Diego Padres, but underwent his second Tommy John surgery after throwing 22.1 innings for the Twins last season.
The Twins could also convert some starters into relievers to try to find a boost.
Kenta Maeda has been a strong part of the Twins starting rotation this year but he has previous experience coming out of the bullpen during his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Twins could use him as an extra right-hander but it also weakens their starting rotation, which will probably need four pitchers throughout October.
Louie Varland should also be a relief candidate as a hard-throwing right-hander as he’s gone 5-1 with a 2.87 ERA in his last 10 starts at Triple-A St. Paul.
The good news is that the Twins can take their time finding a solution as they still own a six-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central. But they’ll need to find something internally if they hope to make a run in October.
