In order to capture the gravity of the day, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted out on Sunday morning the recent history regarding teams that start their seasons winless after two weeks.
Warning: It’s bad news.
Here’s what Schefter’s tweet said: “Since the NFL went to seven playoff teams in each conference in 2020, only one of the 23 teams to start the season 0-2 wound up reaching the playoffs: the 2022 Bengals.”
See, I told you it was bad.
Prior to the Monday night games being played, eight teams were staring at 0-and-tombstone, including the Minnesota Vikings.
While there is no arguing with the history of 0-2 starts, there are some things to pick apart when it comes to factoids like that. First, not all 0-2 teams are the same. The 0-2 Vikings are not like the 0-2 Arizona Cardinals. They have very different quarterbacks, weapons, rosters, goals for the season etc. Kirk Cousins has a 72-65-2 record over his career and Josh Dobbs is now 0-4. Justin Jefferson is the world’s greatest receiver, Arizona cut their Pro Bowl receiver.
The Vikings and the Cardinals have very different divisions. The Lions lost their home opener by giving up 38 points, a hint that all defensive ills may not have been fixed. Green Bay blew a lead to the Atlanta Falcons to drop to 1-1. Justin Fields looked exactly like Mitch Trubisky and Cade McCown while falling to the Bucs, sinking them to 0-2. That’s not exactly the same as Arizona battling the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams all year.
Here’s another thing that sits weirdly about the 0-2 numbers: What about 2-2? If a team went win-loss-win-loss or loss-loss-win-win, is that somehow different? The odds shoot up to about 4 of 10 at 2-2.
DraftKings posted that 63% of teams make the postseason after starting 2-0, which is a reminder that only 43% of the league gets to play in the playoffs so it isn’t a cakewalk no matter how you start the year.
By now you get the point: The Vikings do not have to forfeit the rest of the season just because they did not win in Week 1 or Week 2.
But how can we put odds on them making it to the playoffs?
That is going to be determined by whether they win this week against the Chargers and the schedule after that.
You can challenge the 0-2 numbers as mostly being caused by a sample of teams that have worse rosters than the Vikings but you can’t argue that 0-3 is a death wish. NFL Operations’ data gives 0-3 teams a 14% chance but since 1980, there have been 176 teams that started 0–3 and just six of them have made the playoffs.
If they win, it looks far different.
The Vikings go on the road in Week 4 to take on the Panthers, whose exciting young quarterback Bryce Young is facing an uphill climb with a lack of talent around him. After that, it goes Kansas City, then at Chicago.
A victory over the Chargers would give the Vikings a chance to reach 3-3 before a potentially pivotal game against San Francisco. At .500 through six games, NFL Ops puts the broad odds at 42%.
Here’s what we know so far about the run of teams after the mighty 49ers:
AT Green Bay — Jordan Love has looked competent but the Packers’ health hasn’t been ideal thus far. Playing at Lambeau is never easy.
AT Atlanta — A flawed team with a questionable quarterback, the Falcons have a run-game nightmare for the Vikings.
New Orleans — Improved with Derek Carr at the helm, though it’s not clear how much better they really are.
Denver — Wilson showed some flashes of the old Wilson on Sunday vs. Washington. The Broncos are still in the basement of the West again.
It’s hard to look any farther out than that based on the information we have right now. A victory for the Vikings would be at least splitting those four games and playing Chicago at US Bank Stadium with a chance to hit the bye week at .500 or one game above.
Wait, now it comes into focus why 0-2 is so tough. A 9-8 record is a 50-50 proposition to make the postseason and the Vikings now have to go 9-6 the rest of the way with all of their division games, several powerhouse teams and lots of any-given-Sunday type teams on the slate just to get to a 50% chance.
It’s not like the Vikings haven’t gone on runs before. Last year they started the season 8-1. In 2021 they started 0-2 and sat at 7-7 with three games to go. An 0-3 start reached 6-6 in 2020. A 2-2 beginning to 2019 quickly turned into 8-3. In 2018 they were 1-2-1 and got to 6-4-1 after a hot streak. How about 2017’s 2-2 start that ended up 13-3?
Do they have the goods to get on a roll like that? Can they get on a winning streak and sustain it through the end of the year or will it peter out as it did in 2020 and 2021?
We simply do not have enough information to know that yet, even if the strengths and weaknesses become apparent. It is fair to argue the passing game alone gives them a chance every week.
So it’s not time to talk about where the Vikings will be drafting in 2024 or offering Kirk Cousins to the Jets. Plenty of teams historically have started 0-2 and made noise in the long run. But this week is desperate for both the Vikings and winless Chargers. A pothole turns into a gorge for the club who loses this Sunday.
Related: Vikings boosted as NFC North rivals Packers, Lions and Bears all lose
Related: Kirk Cousins to Jets trade rumors could be complicated after Aaron Rodgers’ experimental procedure
