If the Green Bay Packers lose at home Thursday night to the Tennessee Titans, they’ll drop to 4-7 and be six games back in the loss column to the 8-1 Vikings, who could move to 9-1 with a win over the Cowboys on Sunday.
But forget about Sunday. If the Packers do lose Thursday night, the only way they could catch the Vikings is if Minnesota crumbles to pieces and the Packers win out.
Think about it. Minnesota is 8-1 with eight games to go. Worst case, they lose out and finish 8-9. Best case, they go 16-1. But if the Packers lose to the Titans, the Vikings would have to go 2-6 for the Packers to simply tie the Vikings – and that would require Green Bay winning out to finish 10-7.
That’s precisely why the Vikings have a greater than 99% chance to win the North, according FiveThirtyEight’s playoff odds.
The NFC North blowout is so big that attention now is focused primarily on the Vikings’ chances to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage. That’s where FiveThirtyEight suggests it’s a two-team race between the Eagles and Vikings.
Entering Week 11, the Eagles have a 41% chance and the Vikings a 40% chance to earn the first-round bye. The next-best odds belong to the Cowboys at 11%. If the Cowboys lose to the Vikings, their chances plummet to 1%.
It’s a one-team race in the North while the race in the NFC could be a two-team race by Monday.
