The Minnesota Golden Gophers will look to increase their winning streak to three games when they host the Illinois Fighting Illini at Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Gophers hold their destiny in the Big Ten West with a 3-2 conference record (5-3 overall) while the Illini are in last place with a conference record of 1-4 (3-5 overall).
Here are five things you can count on for Saturday’s game.
1. Both teams establishing the run
For the Gophers, it’s not a matter of if they’ll run the ball. It’s who will be getting the carries.
Darrius Taylor and Zach Evans have shouldered the load at times this season but their status for Saturday’s game is unclear due to lingering injuries. Jordan Nubin filled in and won the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week Award after running for 204 yards against Michigan State but his 40 carries were the most by any player in a FBS game this season.
On the other sideline is Bret Bielema, who routinely gored the Gophers on the ground whether it was at Wisconsin or with the Illini. Chase Brown ran for 180 yards and caught three passes for 53 yards in a touchdown in last year’s win over Minnesota, but after he went to the NFL, the Illini have turned to 6-foot-3, 250-pound true freshman Kaden Feagin (67 carries, 329 yards, 2 TD).
If you’re looking for a high-octane shootout, you might want to change the channel. Both the Gophers and Illini are run-first offenses and whichever one establishes the run should come away with the victory.
2. A first-half advantage for the Gophers
Although both teams have the same idea on offense, the Gophers should have an advantage after Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton was suspended for the first half after picking up a targeting penalty against Wisconsin on Oct. 21.
Newton’s absence helps the Gophers in multiple ways. According to Pro Football Focus, Newton is first in the nation among interior defenders with 31 quarterback pressures and his 22 run stops rank second behind UCF’s Lee Hunter.
Without a massive presence in the middle of the Illinois defense, it could mean a fast start for the Gophers, who are the only team in the FBS that hasn’t scored on its opening drive this season.
3. Luke Altmeyer making plays
The foundation of the Illinois offense is the running game but quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been capable of making plays of his own. The Ole Miss transfer isn’t afraid to make a throw with 11 “Big Time Throws” according to PFF this season but also has his share of mistakes with nine interceptions.
While Altmeyer has been pressured the most out of any quarterback in the Big Ten West this season, he’s also been able to make the most out of it with 259 rushing yards on quarterback scrambles.
This creates a dual challenge for the Gopher defense. While they need to get after Altmeyer in the pocket they also need to make sure he doesn’t escape it and generate plays with his legs.
4. A massive disadvantage on special teams
Field goals and punts are usually a time for Gopher fans to run to the fridge but special teams have been an adventure for Minnesota this season. Pro Football Focus has the Gophers’ special teams ranked dead last with a 59.2 grade this season and the unit’s woes continued with a blocked field goal in last week’s win over Michigan State.
This is a problem because Illinois has PFF’s second-ranked special teams unit. The Illini have been particularly good returning punts with 15 yards per return but also have made teams return the ball on kickoffs with a 34 percent touchback rate.
The Gophers have had issues on special teams throughout the season but they’ll need to clean them up to win on Saturday.
5. A third straight win for the Gophers
This should be a smash spot for the Gophers if they truly are contenders in the Big Ten West but we’ve seen P.J. Fleck fall into trap games like this before.
Although Purdue isn’t an intimidating matchup next week, the Gophers have to travel to Ohio State on Nov. 18 and have a matchup with Wisconsin lurking at the end of their schedule.
This could make it easy to overlook Illinois and lead to another mind-numbing defeat. But it could also help Minnesota build momentum as they look to win the final Big Ten West Division title.
Both sides of the ball present challenges, but the Gophers should be good enough to come out on top.
Prediction: Gophers 17, Illinois 10
