On Sunday, I saw a snarky tweet that was commenting on the reporting surrounding NFL training camps. Paraphrased, WKYC’s Ben Axelrod wrote that anything good in training camp is presented as rock solid evidence that it will be good in the regular season and anything bad is presented as “just practice” and no big deal.
First, let people have their fun, Ben. For more than 20 NFL fan bases, camp hype is the peak of the mountain. That aside, the truth is probably much closer to the opposite. If a player shines during summer practices, it isn’t always predictive. We have seen some Mr. Mankatos over the years become Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen but many others became Audie Cole.
The pitfalls, on the other hand, usually tell the right story. If a team can’t block anybody in practice or a quarterback is flinging the ball into the parking lot or receivers can’t catch a screen pass, it probably means that those things are going to crop up during the regular season. If it looks bad in a controlled environment, it isn’t going to look better amidst the chaos of real games.
If we apply this theory to Minnesota Vikings training camp 2023, we can’t say yet for sure whether Jordan Addison is going to be the next Cris Carter. He sure does look good though. We also can’t pin down if Josh Oliver is going to be a game-changing signing, though you should see that dude move people on run blocking reps. And it’s definitely not a lock that Brian Flores’s all-out-blitz defense will even out the value lost to offseason cuts and free agency this year, though his aggression sure does seem to be annoying the offense.
A few things will work out, a few won’t come to fruition. Who knows which ones. But on the down side weak spots of the roster that have popped up during camp i.e. the lack of proven pass rush behind Danielle Hunter, the running back room behind Alex Mattison, the depth and inexperience at cornerback and — depending on who you ask — the interior of the offensive line. At very least, the O-line behind the starters, which was on display on Saturday night.
The Vikings have enough cap space to do something about those spots and they have seemed relatively interested in doing so. Guard Dalton Risner, cornerback Ron Darby and running backs Kareem Hunt and Mike Davis have all dropped by for visits this summer. Hopefully they enjoyed a Jucy Lucy because they didn’t get contracts while they were here.
It would seem that this week is the last moment of the offseason that the Vikings could press the “sign veteran” button. They have two joint practices with the Cardinals later this week and another preseason game to get someone up to speed quickly if need be. They haven’t gotten into the hardcore game planning for week 1 just yet. If they added a free agent, that player could presumably get acclimated quickly and at least be ready in case of emergency from the outset of the season. If they wait much longer, that becomes tough. Not to mention that the music is going to stop with proven free agents soon and the Vikings could be left without a chair. Darby, for example, joined the Ravens last week. They also signed Jadeveon Clowney. The list is getting thin.
The question isn’t when, it’s whether they should do it.
The timeline rules everything around us, so we have to start there. The case against adding anyone to the roster is that the Vikings took a clear direction this offseason to put younger players in key positions and let the chips fall where they may. They need to find out whether these guys can play. They need to get them in games to develop.
At the same time, they have had since late July to prove to the coaching staff that they are developing. If the backup RBs either can’t get on the field like Kene Nwangwu or can’t earn the trust when it comes to pass blocking and the details of the offense as it appears may be the issue with second-year RB Ty Chandler, what’s the club to do?
So long as Kirk Cousins is the quarterback, the Vikings have to try to win. Otherwise, why is he here? If you had a chance to sign someone who could handle blocking assignments and didn’t do it, is there some negligence there when he takes his first strip sack? It’s not like you didn’t know what was coming based on camp.
Same goes all over the field. If the inexperienced right guard keeps struggling and there’s nobody to step into his place after six weeks, who’s responsible for the pressure in the waning moments of a key game? It’s not like we didn’t have a full season and a month of training camp to let us know this was on the way.
You could argue that no matter who the Vikings sign now they aren’t going to change their fate. It’s either going to work or it’s not. Would the Vegas line move off 8.5 wins because they added pass rusher Melvin Ingram? No chance. (Jonathan Taylor, maybe!)
If the goal is to stay in the race and give themselves a chance come playoff time without sacrificing anything for the future, the decisions should come down to how much they would be giving up down the road by adding older players. If you bring in a veteran corner and he pushes Andrew Booth Jr., who hasn’t taken any first-team reps this offseason, farther down the depth chart, does that really harm the future? But you could make the case that signing a guard to take the place of your second-round pick robs that developing guard of 1,000 snaps and crushes his confidence like cookies on the ground at the state fair.
On one hand, the “competitive” part of competitive rebuild is pretty darn important. Justin Jefferson is on this football team and the NFC looks like it could have multiple teams with sub-.500 records make the playoffs. Who truly scares you in the conference? Maybe two or three teams?
Wait, is that the Trent Dilfer-won-a-Super-Bowl argument I see off in the distance?
You get the point. The Vikings have a chance to be good. They also have two cornerbacks who have barely played and all the guys behind them have also barely played. Joejuan Williams, next in line behind rookie starter Mekhi Blackmon, has never played 300 snaps in a season after being drafted in 2019.
Blackmon and Akayleb Evans are intriguing players. They seem to fit Flores’s defense and nobody thinks they should be held back or benched for a veteran but Blackmon getting banged up in practice last week made it clear there is no parachute if things go wrong with an injury during the year. It would be 2020 all over again.
It’s not like this team is all youth anyway. Dean Lowry. Harrison Phillips. Danielle Hunter. Harrison Smith. Jordan Hicks. These fellas are here to win. What’s one more?
But if you don’t find out if DJ Wonnum can handle regular OLB reps or if either Ivan Pace Jr. or Brian Asamoah can be the next Eric Kendricks, history seems destined to repeat itself next offseason. In football, coaches are remarkably good at knowing whether guys can play based on practice but sometimes players need to be under the real bright lights to click.
There might be an argument to say either way they go is justifiable and fine. Hey, if the secondary isn’t good, they’ll know they need replacements next year, aye? It’s hard to accept that though. There is a season to be played and the Vikings have enough talent to win games. They can’t let any chance to get even 1% better go by, right?
Unless they are going to use their cap space to spread out contract extensions for Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. Remember those?
And while there have been a few summer pickups that have been difference makers over the years, we probably overstate their potential impact. Last year the Vikings acquired Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock late in the game. In 2021, they signed Bashaud Breeland and Sheldon Richardson in minicamp and neither moved the needle in a positive direction. You sure can get talked into some of the remaining free agents though.
It’s not an easy choice. Intrigue over young players could turn to frustration real fast with Philly and KC on the docket in the first few weeks. Or maybe they could be a 2015-ish plucky team that sees a number of players rise to the occasion. These decisions aren’t always easy in a “competitive rebuild” world.
