ESPN analytics has unveiled its predictions for the 2023 NFL season and the numbers suggest the Minnesota Vikings will be a team on the bubble.
The projections are the result of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which is a model that analyzes win totals from Caesars Sporstbook, strength of schedule, travel, rest days and a myriad of other variables before simulating the season thousands of times to calculate the most likely outcomes.
The model rates the Vikings 15th best in the NFL. Here are the Vikings’ projections:
- Wins: 8.6
- Losses: 8.3
- Make playoffs: 51.8%
- Win division: 28.7%
- Reach divisional round: 28.7%
- Reach conference championship: 13.5%
- Reach Super Bowl: 5.9%
- Win Super Bowl: 2.3%
The Detroit Lions are 43% favorites to win the NFC North while the Bears and Packers and expected to finish third and fourth, respectively, in the division.
“Although the Minnesota Vikings won the division last season with 13 wins, and the Lions missed the playoffs with nine, there’s evidence that Detroit was — and is — the better team,” ESPN says.
ESPN’s FPI looks at the NFC as a weak conference, with only five of the 15 best teams in the NFL coming from the NFC. Among NFC contenders, the Vikings rank sixth, behind the Giants, Lions, Cowboys, 49ers and Eagles.
Minnesota’s offense is ranked by FPI as the 10th-best unit in the NFL. The Vikings defense ranks 11th worst.
ESPN analytics haven’t been very good, at least not of late when it comes to the NBA. The Miami Heat were given a 3% chance to advance to the NBA Finals ahead of Game 1 of the conference finals against the Boston Celtics. But Jimmy Butler and the Heat lead that series 3-0 and appear to be a lock to win the East.
Even so, ESPN’s model is still only giving the Heat a 28% chance to win the series against Boston. Fun fact: No team in NBA history has won a playoff series after trailing 3-0 in a best-of-seven competition.
The Boston Celtics have a 72% chance to win the series down 3-0 according to ESPN Analytics pic.twitter.com/2HhgJgIC0l
— Major Passons (@Major_Passons) May 22, 2023
