The Minnesota Gophers have gotten off to a rough start but according to ESPN writer Bill Connely, it’s been worse than a pair of Football Championship Subdivision teams this season.
Connelly is the founder of the SP+ system, which is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. After creating the system for Football Outsiders in 2008, Connelly has made some tweaks and brought his formula over to ESPN in a weekly ranking.
Anyone who has watched the Gophers this season knows that efficiency isn’t their strong suit – especially in the passing game – and it’s not a surprise to see Minnesota checking in at 64th in his Week 6 rankings.
But it may be a surprise to some to see where Minnesota wound up in Connelly’s latest project which ranked all teams from the Football Bowl Subdivision, the FCS and Division II.
You know what you didn't realize you needed to see today? COMBINED FBS, FCS AND D2 SP+ RANKINGS. (Using 28 points' difference between each level.)
My poor, poor, beloved, 404th-ranked SWOSU Bulldogs. 🙁 pic.twitter.com/AF67V1Jsv8
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 12, 2023
The project, which was posted to X on Thursday morning, used Connelly’s system but added 28 points for the difference between each level. Even with the adjustment, the Gophers (66th) ranked behind FCS powerhouses South Dakota State (31st) and North Dakota State (51st).
North Dakota State established itself as an FCS dynasty by winning eight national titles in nine seasons through the 2010s . The Bison also has more quarterbacks drafted since 2016 (three) than the Gophers have had over the past 50 years, but it may be more surprising to see SDSU ahead of Gophers in the rankings.
The Jackrabbits are in the middle of their own run, winning 19 straight games dating back to last year’s season-opening loss at Iowa. With a 5-0 start this season, SDSU appears to be on its way to making a run at its second straight national title and could hold its weight against FBS teams according to Connelly’s rankings.
Before Bison and Jackrabbits fans dream of jumping to the FBS, however, Connelly cautions that there are some flaws in the system.
“SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling,” Connelly explains. “It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating probably will fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it probably will rise.”
To Connelly’s point, SDSU and NDSU have both been impressive to start the season but haven’t faced the most daunting of schedules.
While the Jackrabbits have an impressive win over Montana State (68th), they also have wins over North Dakota (110th), Illinois State (120th), Drake (316th) and Western Oregon (322nd).
Meanwhile, the Bison are 4-1 this season but were upset by South Dakota (123rd) at the FARGODOME on Oct. 7.
None of the teams above compare to Michigan (2nd) whom P.J. Fleck called the best team he’s ever seen as a head coach. But they could fall in line with Northwestern (111th), whom the Gophers blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to in a 37-34 overtime loss on Sept. 23.
No matter what system you use, the Gophers will look to start climbing the rankings again when they face Iowa (42nd) next Saturday.
