With a record of 5-1, the Minnesota Vikings have established themselves as legitimate contenders in their first year under Kevin O’Connell. After spending the last two years clawing their way just to get to .500, Vikings fans are elated, dreaming of playoff victories and even home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Based on their record, the Vikings are contenders. By the numbers, they’re a slightly above average football team. The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin comprised a list of NFL tiers coming out of Week 7 and the Vikings aren’t elite at anything.
It starts with the play of Kirk Cousins, who has generated three game-winning drives this season but has also produced a plethora of three-and-outs. Baldwin’s quarterback tiers compare a quarterback’s Pro Football Focus grade and his offense’s expected points added (EPA).
Cousins’ offensive PFF grade of 75.4 is ninth in the NFL, but his expected points added is right at zero, putting him right in the middle of Baldwin’s chart.
Quarterback grades and efficiency through Week 7
— It's been a brutal year 2 for the 2021 QB class
— Somehow the Jets are 5-2 pic.twitter.com/6tPzDeM5Ej— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 25, 2022
The Vikings have also been in the middle in terms of how much they run the ball on second and long, how efficient their passing game is compared to their running game and even their pass protection.
Pass protection as measured by ESPN (tracking data) and PFF (charting data).
The 3 OLs that really stand out are PHI, BAL, CLE pic.twitter.com/VI8ZkiZz7g
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 25, 2022
How about the Vikings in terms of aggressiveness? Mike Zimmer was often criticized for his willingness to go for it on fourth down, but O’Connell hasn’t represented a major shift as the Vikings rank right in the middle of fourth down aggressiveness.
How often each team goes for it when they should (based on the next version of the bot which hasn't been implemented quite yet) pic.twitter.com/xyphU4Cpb2
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 25, 2022
The Vikings’ middling numbers extend further. The Vikings rank 13th in points per game and 16th in yards per play. With nobody outside of Justin Jefferson jumping off the page, it’s not a surprise that Baldwin has the Vikings right by the Packers in the numerical power rankings.
Market rating versus PFF rating
Lots of agreement, but PFF really loves the Titans pic.twitter.com/cWOOOmQxpU
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 26, 2022
Baldwin has the Vikings in the NFL’s “middle class” in his own power rankings.
Here are the Most Correct Power Rankings you'll see this week pic.twitter.com/dui9sKyQs5
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 26, 2022
While some will debate the merit of Baldwin’s analytics, but the eye test through six games would also grade the Vikings as average or slightly above average.
Consider that the Vikings smashed a Green Bay Packers team that was without Allen Lazard, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins in Week 1. They were then flattened by the Philadelphia Eagles, who look like the NFC’s lone elite team.
Dan Campbell’s bad fourth-down decision led to a win over the 1-5 Detroit Lions and the Vikings needed a double-doink to escape London with a win over the New Orleans Saints. Another late drive was needed to beat the Chicago Bears and the Vikings logged eight straight three-and-outs to open their win against the Miami Dolphins.
The Vikings have found a way to “win in the margins” as Kevin O’Connell calls it, but it’s unlikely they can continue to do so all the way to the Super Bowl or even just to a playoff win.
“Yes, their point differential suggests they’re maybe closer to a 3- or 4- win team than a 5-win team, but I also think they’ve done a lot of earning their own luck with players making plays at the best time,” says Purple Insider’s Matthew Coller.
But they will certainly have to be more consistent on offense and better on defense when they play the likes of the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills, and perhaps even this week’s opponent, Arizona.
“If you play like a middling team, you won’t win those games. They do have to improve on both sides of the ball, be more aggressive on defense,” Coller said. “And on the offensive side, find more consistency.”
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