The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2023 NFL Draft with plenty of questions but the biggest might be the future of the quarterback position. After the Vikings and Kirk Cousins have failed to come to an agreement on a contract extension, rumors have swirled about the possibility of Minnesota drafting a quarterback in the first round but it’s uncertain how far they are willing to go.
One risk the Vikings could take is to trade into the upper half of the draft but with just five selections this year and the long-term risk of drafting a quarterback it’s a move that could define the current regime.
If the Vikings were to make such a bold move, they would have to ask themselves if they can afford to make a deal and if they have the infrastructure to groom a young quarterback for success.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week that at least six teams had called the Arizona Cardinals to acquire the third overall pick in the draft but it’s unclear how much it would take to convince the Cardinals to trade down.
Recent history suggests that a trade-up for a quarterback will not be cheap. In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up from the 27th overall pick in the draft to the 10th overall pick by sending the Buffalo Bills the 91st overall pick and their 2018 first-round pick. Of course, that trade wound up landing Patrick Mahomes but those results aren’t typical.
The year before, the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles moved up in the draft to select Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.
The Rams moved up from the 15th overall pick in the draft to select Goff, giving the Tennessee Titans two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third round picks. Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018 but he was traded to the Detroit Lions as part of the Matthew Stafford deal in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Eagles traded the 13th overall pick, cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Miami Dolphins for the eighth overall pick before giving the eighth overall pick, a 2016 third-round pick, a 2016 fourth-round pick, a 2017 first-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the second overall pick.
Wentz became the Eagles starter from Day 1 and was an MVP candidate in 2017 before tearing his ACL. Although Nick Foles finished the job by winning the Super Bowl, Wentz never was the same and is looking to join his fourth team in the past four seasons.
There are other deals the Vikings could look towards such as the Bills’ decision to trade up for Josh Allen in 2018 and the Washington Commanders’ deal to move up for Robert Griffin III in 2012, but Over The Cap’s draft pick value chart suggests that if the Vikings wanted to move up to No. 3 it would likely cost them a minimum of two first-round picks.
That turns the spotlight toward the Vikings’ current infrastructure. If the Vikings give up a large amount of draft capital, it would hinder their ability to improve the rest of the roster, which could make it difficult for that quarterback to succeed.
If we’re looking at previous trade-ups, Mahomes benefitted greatly from sitting behind Alex Smith and working with offensive guru Andy Reid. Even Wentz and Griffin landed into cushy situations, paving the way for early success before flaming out.
With the Vikings, the infrastructure starts with Justin Jefferson. Having one of the top receivers in the NFL is a boost for any quarterback and having one that is as proficient as Jefferson could make a transition easier. The Vikings also have other weapons that can help out including tight end T.J. Hockenson and a franchise-caliber tandem of tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.
The Vikings also don’t need their rookie quarterback to start from Day 1. With Cousins playing on the final year of his deal, he can lead the Vikings this season before turning the job over in 2024. With an offensive mind in Kevin O’Connell grooming him, the quarterback would have ample time to get ready for life in the NFL.
That being said, there are plenty of holes on the roster. The Vikings’ defense still suffers from a lack of depth and the interior of the offensive line still needs work. But even without draft picks the Vikings could use the rookie salary cap window to fix those positions in free agency.
It’s the same formula that helped the Eagles boost Wentz and Jalen Hurts to Super Bowl seasons and has something the Vikings haven’t been able to do while paying Cousins. But it also doesn’t matter if the quarterback isn’t good.
That’s where the trust in this regime has to come in. If they can identify the quarterback they want, trading up is something the Vikings can pull off. If they identify the wrong one, not only will this regime be looking for new jobs, it could create a ripple effect for the next several years.
