At this point in his career, there has been no limit on what Justin Jefferson can achieve with the Minnesota Vikings.
Since entering the league in 2020, Jefferson’s receptions and receiving yards have improved in each of his first three seasons. Last year, Jefferson reached historic heights as he led the NFL with 128 receptions – seventh most all-time – and 1,809 receiving yards – sixth-most all-time.
Jefferson’s rise to stardom is something that hasn’t been seen in the NFL in a long time, but did Jefferson’s 2022 season represent his ceiling or was it another step toward becoming one of the greatest receivers of all time?
“He set that bar extremely high last season,” Matthew Coller said in a Purple Insider Extra for Bring Me The Sports. “I think that what he did last year would be difficult to top even historically. Not that there’s never been receiving seasons like this … but those numbers are just some of the best that have ever been put up by a receiver. Repeating that year and and year out to that level? I think it’s very difficult.”
To Coller’s point no player that posted the top 10 receiving yardage totals in NFL history has improved their production in the following season. In addition, each receiver saw their production drop by at least 24 percent the following year.
It should be said that several players on that list went on to have productive seasons the following year, but it should also be noted that two of the players on this list – Cooper Kupp and Michael Thomas – suffered severe injuries that cut their seasons short and triggered a massive drop in production.
Jefferson has yet to miss a game due to injury over his three-year career and has started every game after making his first career start in Week 3 of the 2020 season. But with each reception – 324 of them to be exact – comes more wear and tear and one wrong hit could derail Jefferson’s season.
Think back to 2003 when Randy Moss racked up 1,632 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns for the Vikings before suffering a hamstring injury early in the 2004 season. Although he played through it, Moss wasn’t 100 percent until he missed three games and his production slumped to 767 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Health can be a fickle thing, but so can the situation around Jefferson.
A year ago, Jefferson was the key threat in the Vikings offense and defenses did everything they could to try and stop him. While the Vikings brought in T.J. Hockenson to help, Jefferson still saw double and triple coverage as teams tried to slow down the offense.
The Vikings continued to get Jefferson help by bringing in Jordan Addison and free-agent tight end Josh Oliver but those players – along with Hockenson – will also need the ball.
“There’s more guys to share the ball to this year,” Coller noted. “Hockenson being in his first full season in the offense as opposed to just coming in [at] the last minute. … We’ll see what kind of attention [Addison] gets. I think they’d like to see a step up from K.J. Osborn and use the running backs a little more. …The football is going to get spread around.”
But even with some elements against Jefferson having an even bigger season, there are some signs that point toward another massive year.
The Vikings’ schedule is more difficult than it was a season ago and includes matchups against top quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Even with the arrival of Brian Flores, it’s unlikely that the defense will transform into a top-10 unit overnight, meaning that the Vikings will be involved in shootouts.
Jefferson will also be in his second season in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Last offseason, Adam Thielen noted he was “swimming” trying to learn the new system and Kirk Cousins admitted to resorting to flashcards to get everything down.
Cousins noted during OTAs that the continuity of the coaching staff as a reason for optimism next year and if that helps unlock his potential it could mean great things for Jefferson.
“I think we should not expect anything but the best of the best from Justin Jefferson and how Kevin O’Connell adapts to those defenses, that really force the Vikings to try and throw it anywhere else except [to] Jefferson,” Coller said. “Those adjustments might make the difference whether it’s the 10th or 12th-best offense or if it gets into the top five, because they certainly have the weapons to.”
