If you haven’t noticed, the NFC has some gnarly looking football teams.
The Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons are playing quarterbacks they picked in the middle rounds last year, the Tampa Bay Bucs are giving Baker Mayfield his fourth chance, the Chicago Bears’ defense looks like something out of The Replacements, the Los Angeles Rams have more dead cap than Enron has debt, the Saints and Giants overpaid middling quarterbacks this offseason and Carolina is starting a rookie QB without many weapons to speak of (with respect to Adam Thielen).
The crown jewel of the NFC’s wretchedness is the Arizona Cardinals, who cut presumed starting quarterback Colt McCoy on Monday. Those in the desert may contend that Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune are better options based on training camp but they were already so far down the tank path that it probably didn’t matter either way. Of course, McCoy is 3-3 as a starter with Arizona and that sounds a little risky if you’re trying to go 3-14.
The Cardinals know exactly what they are doing. There was no other choice. Their starting quarterback Kyler Murray is out with an ACL injury and their culture was so bad there are reports of players telling others not to sign there. Plus there was that whole thing in the NFLPA survey about the weight room having loose floorboards. It would have made no sense for the Cards to have a decent backup-level quarterback waste his time en route to 6-11 while somebody else landed the No. 1 overall pick.
If they are as bad as we think, Arizona has a chance to live the tank dream. The upcoming draft features an A+ quarterback prospect and receiver and somehow they robbed a 2024 first-round pick from Houston on draft day.
The NFC has been wrought with tanking — or aggressively rebuilding — lately. the Lions sold off Matthew Stafford in 2021, Atlanta parted ways with Matt Ryan and Bears GM Ryan Poles dealt away Khalil Mack as soon as he got the job. Carolina fired its coach and played backup QBs, seemingly trying to get to the top of the draft, but it semi-backfired with a few wins. They split the difference and traded up to No. 1 anyway.
That’s quite different from its AFC cousin who keeps adding more talent in the form of Aaron Rodgers, Sean Payton this offseason and Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson last year. The AFC also has the recent top pick QBs. Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson each went in the top five and Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett were mid first-rounders. You could argue that the Las Vegas Raiders are the only AFC team that doesn’t yet realize how bad they’re going to be.
The result is the conference being split up into five categories: Currently tanking, recently tanked and aren’t there yet, recently tanked and might be there now, legit Super Bowl contenders and those who are somewhere in between.
The Vikings, Packers, Saints, Giants and Rams are definitely in the “somewhere in between” and it’s possible the Seahawks, Commanders and even Lions could end up there too if this year isn’t their big leap.
Coming out of training camp, the Vikings have to feel like they are on the high side of “in between.” Their rookie receiver Jordan Addison shined on a daily basis and the defense seemed to embrace Brian Flores’s aggressive style. If Addison turns out to be a quality receiver to pair with Jefferson, the Vikings have an ideal offensive setup — maybe aside from some improvements at guard — for the future. Defensively it’s harder to figure out. This season will be about finding out whether they will be ready to take on the next wave of NFC quarterbacks when Caleb Williams (possibly) joins the conference.
If they finish with a good record and win the North, then what happens to drafting a quarterback? Is Cousins staying? How far can they trade up? Wait, does this mean Kyler Murray’s going to be available? Is that a good idea?
The problem is, while they figure it out, some of those rebuild-y team are starting to come up on the other side. The Lions are favored to win the division. Atlanta could be competitive if Desmond Ridder is anything except terrible and Justin Fields has the best receiver in Chicago since Brandon Marshall. They are both a year or two away from being pre-season darlings like the Lions. If Arizona lands Williams, they might not be far behind the on-the-rise teams.
It’s like one of those ballpark mascot races where half of the conference is jockeying for an edge and a couple of them will probably fall on their faces but somebody is going to come out with the strongest overall team. The Vikings are trying to figure out how to get there before Arizona, even if their fuzzy bird mascot has a springboard named Caleb to leap over Viktor the Viking.
Certainly we knew this going in and there’s nothing that happened during Cardinals or Vikings camp that changed the expected outcome for either team. The Vikings have the 16th best Super Bowl odds on DraftKings, Arizona 32nd. The offseason started that way. But the Cards’ aggressive rebuilding decision brought up the question: Where will those odds be in three years if Arizona does it right? Or of the Vikings drafted the right QB? Or if they landed Murray?
This is the last day to wonder about the direction. When roster cutdown happens, it’s onto the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a year with expectations. After all, with all these teams that are tanking or have tanked or are somewhere in between, opportunity exists for a team with the best receiver on earth, right?
The Vikings should be held to the standard they set, which is getting back to the top of the division and into the postseason and then figuring it all out after that.
