If you want to have an interesting debate about the Minnesota Vikings, ask a few friends how good they were in 2022. You are sure to get a bunch of different opinions about a club that won 13 games and took home the NFC North crown, but also failed to outscore their opponents and lost in the wild card round to an unspectacular New York Giants team.
While it’s up for deliberation, in order to answer the question about whether the Vikings have improved their short and long-term chances at a championship with their moves this offseason, we have to determine how close they were to a championship last year.
Broadly speaking, the Vikings were the closest they have been since 2017 simply by virtue of taking home 13 wins and hosting a playoff game. Since 2010 there have been 29 teams that posted three-loss seasons (either 14-3 or 13-3) and 17 of those teams made at least the conference championship. Nine made the Super Bowl. By that way of looking at things, the Vikings gave themselves a one-in-three shot at being the last man in the NFC standing.
A closer look at the numbers is less convincing. Out of 26 teams to reach the Super Bowl since 2010, only one had a negative point differential and that happened more than a decade ago. The next lowest was plus-54. The Vikings are the only team to win more than 11 games with a negative point differential and one of six (out of 214) since 2010 to win double-digit games.
If we split the difference, we could reasonably say they gave themselves a shot but didn’t deserve to be considered a favorite.
With the first part of free agency finished and the draft in the books, oddsmakers would probably not use the same description for the 2023 version. On DraftKings the Vikings have the 17th best Super Bowl odds at +4500, and six NFC teams are ahead of them. The Bears and Giants are in their ballpark.
Vegas fading the Vikings stands to reason based on what we know about regression. They won every one-score game last year and lost some key players this offseason (and could lose several more after June 1).
Analytics expert Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points newsletter attempted to quantify how much every team has gained or lost in talent since the end of last season and the Vikings are on the wrong side of his ledger.
Did they really get worse in overhauling some parts of the roster? Let’s look closer where the Vikings have made changes…
Last year’s secondary included Patrick Peterson, who was one of the most statistically effective corners in the NFL, grading sixth overall by PFF, second in interceptions, 10th in pass breakups and sixth in QB rating allowed. Duke Shelley, now with the Raiders, had 10 PBUs and gave up a 57.8 rating on throws into his coverage.
Replacing that many plays on the football will be a difficult for any of the replacements i.e. Byron Murphy Jr., Andrew Booth Jr., Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon, Jay Ward or Joejuan Williams. However, the rest of the group struggled so much that by committee they could turn out a better performance overall. In 2022, Cam Dantzler gave up a 113.0 rating, Chandon Sullivan 108.5, and both rookies struggled as well.
The jury is very much out on whether the collection of youth in the secondary can rise to the challenge in the short term.
There’s a different conversation about the long-term outlook. The Vikings are throwing numbers at the cornerback position with a youthful group of players that all have a chance to become stapes of the defensive back group for years to come. Does that guarantee they can put together a championship-caliber secondary? No. It does give them odds at improving in the coming seasons after allowing the second most passing yards in the NFL last season.
You could make a case that taking steps toward improving the cornerback group is getting closer to greatness. Out of the 26 teams who played for a Super Bowl since 2010, 19 allowed fewer than 4,000 yards passing and 21 conference champs gave up QB ratings under 90.0.
The front seven is tougher to figure. Eric Kendricks had his worst season in coverage, but inexperienced linebackers often struggle and replacement Brian Asamoah rarely saw the field last year. We still do not know the statuses of Danielle Hunter or Za’Darius Smith, both of whom ranked in the top 10 in QB pressures. Those shoes will be tough to fill for Marcus Davenport and Co. if the Vikings move on from either or both. Again, in the long term trading Hunter might turn out to be better. Despite his excellence, the cost and potential return make it an enticing option.
Related: Projecting the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive depth chart in 2023
There’s no plus side to losing defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and replacing him with Dean Lowry aside from the potential for unproven players like Khyiris Tonga, Esezi Otomewo and Jaquelin Roy possibly getting a chance to play.
On the offensive side, the Vikings ranked eighth in points per game. There are arguments for improvement in 2023, particularly in the ground game where they ranked 27th in Expected Points Added and 26th in yards per attempt.
It’s plausible that Jordan Addison could be an upgrade over Adam Thielen, though that’s tough to project that considering rookies are unpredictable.
The offensive line has a chance to take a step forward, in particular at right guard.
On the whole, offenses with quarterback Kirk Cousins at the helm have routinely finished around the fringe top 10. Without a massive improvement in terms of personnel though, it’s safe to say that if they perform similarly to last season in terms of point production, it will have been a good year. And since nearly every team in the last decade to make the Super Bowl has ranked in the top five offensively, it can’t definitively be said that they are closer than last year.
However, you could argue that restructuring Cousins’s deal rather than extending him may have done that. While there are salary cap consequences in 2024, the Vikings would gain all the benefits in 2025 of a QB on a rookie contract if they allow Cousins to exit via free agency next year.
Here are are the recent salary cap hits during the year teams reached the Super Bowl:
2022: Mahomes ($35.7 million), Hurts ($1.6 million)
2021: Burrow ($8.2 million), Stafford ($20.0 million)
2020: Mahomes ($5.3 million), Brady ($25.0 million)
2019: Mahomes ($4.4 million), Garoppolo ($20.0 million)
2018: Brady (22.0 million), Goff ($7.6 million)
You’ll notice that every Super Bowl has at least one of the QBs making under $10 million. That certainly doesn’t mean that every team with a cheap quarterback will reach The Big Game but it’s hard to ignore the edge it gives a team in its building process.
Related: 10 quarterbacks the Vikings could target in the 2024 NFL Draft
Could the Vikings get closer to a title with Cousins? If they can build a complete defense and if Addison clicks, the offensive line improves and the backfield-by-committee churns out a star, that could be in the cards. Barring a massive jump by the Lions, the NFC North could still belong to the Vikings.
But you can make a reasonable argument that they got closer in the future this offseason by throwing a bunch of darts to improve the pass defense over the next few years and simply not locking themselves into an expensive QB who hasn’t produced a top-five scoring offense. If they eventually choose to extend Cousins, the structure of the extension and cap flexibility will matter toward their team building and whether they can break through the glass ceiling that they have bumped against during his tenure.
Still, it’s hard to say yet for sure whether they got closer. That will be determined by the development of the young corners, whether Addison creates the next Moss-Carter partnership with Justin Jefferson or not, the handling of the QB situation, and things falling their way.
