A 3-0 win for the Twins (73-73) over the Guardians (79-67) on Sunday pulled them back within six game of first place in the AL Central, but their playoff hopes remain on life support.
Joe Ryan threw 7.2 innings and allowed just three hits. Over his past two starts, he’s allowed three hits and no runs in 14.2 innings, lowering his ERA from 4.05 to 3.61.
According to FanGraphs, the Twins have a 1.1% chance to make the playoffs. That 1.1% is made up of 1% to win the division and .1% chance to claim a wild card spot. Not only are the Twins chasing the Guardians, they’re also behind the White Sox (76-71), who are just 3.5 games behind Cleveland.
Knowing how dire the situation is for Minnesota, here are the scenarios that would miraculously give the Twins the outright division title.
If the Twins go 16-0 and finish 89-73, they win the division if the Guardians go 9-7 or worse AND the White Sox go 12-3 or worse.
If the Twins go 15-1 and finish 88-74, they win the division if the Guardians go 8-8 or worse AND the White Sox go 11-4 or worse.
If the Twins go 14-2 and finish 87-75, they win the division if the Guardians go 7-9 or worse AND the White Sox go 10-5 or worse.
If the Twins go 13-3 and finish 86-76, they win the division if the Guardians go 6-10 or worse AND the White Sox go 9-6 or worse.
If the Twins go 12-4 and finish 85-77, they win the division if the Guardians go 5-11 or worse AND the White Sox go 8-7 or worse.
If the Twins go 11-5 and finish 84-78, they win the division if the Guardians go 4-12 or worse AND the White Sox go 7-8 or worse.
If the Twins go 10-6 and finish 83-79, they win the division if the Guardians go 3-13 or worse AND the White Sox go 6-9 or worse.
If the Twins go 9-7 and finish 82-80, they win the division if the Guardians go 2-14 or worse AND the White Sox go 5-10 or worse.
If the Twins go 8-8 and finish 81-81, they win the division if the Guardians go 1-15 or worse AND the White Sox go 4-11 or worse.
If the Twins go 7-9 and finish 80-82, they win the division if the Guardians go 0-16 AND the White Sox go 3-12 or worse.
One thing the Twins have going for them is a schedule that still has them seeing the White Sox six times while mixing in the lowly Royals, Angels and Tigers.
After Monday’s game between the Twins and Guardians, the Guardians face the White Sox and Rays before finishing the regular season with a six-game series at home against the Royals.
