It might only be May, but the first sign that the new season is getting close is the schedule release. Let’s dive into the schedule with a bit more detail than just picking the games.
A closer look at the schedule
The first thing everyone wants to know about their team’s schedule is: How tough is it? Most often, fans and analysts will judge a team’s strength of schedule based on how all of its opponents fared in a previous season, but that doesn’t accurately represent what the team will face this upcoming season. Players come and go in free agency, teams reshape themselves through the draft and young quarterbacks develop. None of that is reflected in how a team did last season.
So the best way we can try to predict how difficult a team’s schedule will be is based on Vegas win totals for the upcoming season. Those are the most concrete reflections of what each team is expected to do every season. And it shows a stark contrast from just looking at the previous season’s standings.
Sharp Football Analytics always goes in-depth on this issue. Let’s look at the chart they put together.
Anything above the green line means the team has an easier-than-average schedule. Below signifies a more difficult schedule.
In his ranking, Minnesota has the 10th easiest schedule. And that’s much different than ranking the strength of a schedule based on last year’s records. Going by that metric, Minnesota would rank as the 20th schedule, a 10-spot difference.
In looking at these rankings, the Vikings have the second-easiest schedule in the NFC North behind only the Bears (ranked second-easiest in the NFL). It is worth noting that all the NFC North teams have easier schedules than average, which is in part due to the fact that they get to play each other. If you look at the AFC West, for example, you see that all of those teams have harder than average schedules as each of those teams is expected to be good.
Related: Vikings’ schedule features lots of unproven quarterbacks
But even this doesn’t tell the whole story. A big part of the NFL schedule comes down to rest. Are you playing a team coming off a bye? Do you have a rest advantage?
Here’s another chart from Sharp Football Analytics, which shows the rest advantage throughout the league. A positive number indicates the team has a rest advantage of that many days, and a negative number indicates they have a rest disadvantage of that many days.
For the Vikings, it all evens out. They play one team coming off of a bye (Dallas has a bye in Week 9 before playing the Vikings in Week 10) and have one in which their opponent has one more day of rest than them (Detroit in Week 3).
Similarly, the Vikings will have a three-day rest advantage over the Jets because they played Thursday night the week before. Their bye-week advantage is partially negated as they play the Cardinals the following week, who will be coming off a Thursday night game of their own. That gives Minnesota a four-day advantage instead of the normal seven days. They also have a one-day rest advantage heading into their Week 17 matchup at Green Bay.
Minnesota ranks exactly average in this metric and is the only team that has a completely net average.
Looking at the NFC North again, the Green Bay Packers have the biggest disadvantage in the league. They play two teams coming off a bye and they have their own bye week negated by a Thursday Night matchup.
Detroit, on the other hand, has the second-most advantageous rest schedule. They do not play a single game in which the other team is more rested than them. Chicago also has an overall rest advantage and does not play a team coming off of a bye.
But how much does rest actually matter?
Well, according to Sharp Football Analytics, “rest advantages typically help the better-coached team with a better roster. Playing with rest disadvantages really hurts teams with worse coaching or worse rosters.”
That seems self-explanatory. If you’re a well-coached team with a good roster, it really doesn’t have an effect. They found that over the last 10 years, teams expected to win games (teams favored) and playing with a rest advantage from week 14 onward went 79-30 (72.5%) and covered 55.1% of games. But that’s only a slight increase from how those favorites fared in games where they didn’t have a rest advantage. In those games, favorites went 374-154 (70.8%) and covered 52.6% of games.
That means the worse teams, playing with a rest disadvantage, won 27.5% of games with a rest disadvantage and won 29.2% of games with an even or rest advantage.
So we’re talking about small differences here. But when you apply that to the Vikings, a team that appears right on the edge of the playoff bubble, those small percentages come into play. We also don’t know whether we can group the Vikings in with the “well-coached teams.” There’s plenty of optimism that Kevin O’Connell can be a net positive as head coach, but we don’t know that.
So where O’Connell falls on that spectrum could make the difference in the two games the Vikings have a rest disadvantage and those two outcomes could mean the difference between a playoff berth and another disappointing season.
A couple of other schedule nuggets:
- The Vikings improved in the rest advantage rankings from last year. In 2021, they ranked 28th in rest advantage, meaning they were in many more disadvantageous situations than they’ll be in next year.
- They also have an easier projected schedule entering this year than they did entering last year. As mentioned above, the Vikings have the 10th easiest schedule this year. Last year, they ranked 17th.
- The Vikings are also one of seven teams that have three consecutive home games in a row. And it comes at an important stretch. The Vikings play Dallas, New England, and the New York Jets all at home in Weeks 11-13.
Which Vikings opponent could take a leap?
After the Vikings lost to the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime in Week 1, nobody expected that loss to be to the eventual AFC Champions. In Week 2, the Vikings lost to the Arizona Cardinals, who were supposed to be a fringe playoff team and definitely not a team that started 7-0.
As much as we can try to predict how strong the Vikings’ schedule will be based on previous seasons and expected win totals, there will still be some surprises on the Vikings’ schedule. There will almost assuredly be a few teams that don’t seem to pose a major threat now but will end up as very difficult matchups for the Vikings.
Going back to the Bengals and Cardinals examples. The Bengals’ over/under win total heading into 2021 was 6.5. The Cardinals’ was 8. So, let’s try to figure out who will be this year’s Bengals and Cardinals on the Vikings schedule.
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 8.5)
The Eagles are already a very trendy pick as a dark horse NFC East candidate as they’ve had a productive offseason after barely sneaking into the playoffs last season. But they make quite a bit of sense for this. As will be the case for a lot of these teams I mention, it comes down to the quarterback?
Both Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray took leaps last year, that’s why they improved. Can Jalen Hurts take another jump? While he’s entering his third year in the league, it’s really only his second as a starter. Could we see him take the jump that other second-year quarterbacks have made?
If so, they have the pieces around him to do it. They added AJ Brown and Jordan Davis, a freak defensive tackle. Their schedule is the third-easiest, according to Sharp Football Analytics. And they play in a division that is up for grabs. The Cowboys remain the favorite, but they lost several key pieces – like Amari Cooper and Randy Gregory. The Eagles could easily make the leap we aren’t expecting.
Miami Dolphins (O/U 8.5)
Again, can Tua Tagovailoa make some drastic improvements? His situation has been approved immensely with the addition of Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel. And 2021 first-round pick WR Jaylen Waddle looks like a keeper.
They aren’t considered as a potential AFC East division winner because of the Buffalo Bills, but the Dolphins have the 11th easiest schedule in the league. If McDaniel can coax strong play out of Tua, then the Dolphins have a chance.
Detroit Lions or Chicago Bears (O/U 6.5)
Both these teams fit that Bengals mode and both have the exact same over/under as Cincinnati did in 2021. And I grouped these together because it’s very unlikely that they could both break out. But I think both fit the mold as a potentially surprising team, albeit for different reasons.
For Detroit, it’s all about the non-QB roster. They now have several high-draft picks devoted to premium positions with Jameson Williams at WR, Aidan Hutchinson at EDGE, and Penei Sewell at LT. And they have a coach that seems to get the most out of his players.
If the Lions can just get competent play from Jared Goff, they pose a threat. And we already talked about how easy their schedule is.
For the Bears, it’s the exact opposite. This is only about Justin Fields. And this banks on him having that ideal second-season for a QB, just like Burrow and Murray. The rest of the roster is horrible, but if Fields is transcendent, we’ve seen that can be enough.
