Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler each hit home runs as the Twins pounded the Orioles 10-1 to finish off a four-game sweep Sunday afternoon at Target Field.
The four straight wins coupled with two straight loss by the Indians have the Twins back within 9 1/2 games of first place in the Central division. While all hope is probably still lost, it’s worth at least figuring out what Minnesota’s chances to make the playoffs are.
Let’s start with the mathematical odds. According to Fan Graphs, the Twins have a 0.8 percent chance to win the division and just a 1 percent chance to reach the postseason.
That’s daunting, and here’s why. If Cleveland simply plays out the rest of its season (74 games) at the same winning percentage they currently have (.557), they’ll finish with a final record of 91-71.
The Twins have 75 games to go. Look how many wins they’ll finish with based on specific winning percentages over the final 75 games.
- If they play .500 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 76 or 77 wins.
- If they play .510 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 77 wins.
- If they play .520 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 78 wins.
- If they play .530 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 79 wins.
- If they play .540 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 79 or 80 wins.
- If they play .550 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 80 wins.
- If they play .560 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 81 wins.
- If they play .570 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 82 wins.
- If they play .580 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 82 or 83 wins.
- If they play .590 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 83 wins.
- If they play .600 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 84 wins.
- If they play .610 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 85 wins.
- If they play .620 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 85 or 86 wins.
- If they play .630 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 86 wins.
- If they play .640 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 87 wins.
- If they play .650 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 88 wins.
- If they play .660 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 88 or 89 wins.
- If they play .670 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 89 wins.
- If they play .680 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 90 wins.
- If they play .690 the rest of the season they’ll finish with 91 wins.
Ok, you clearly understand by now that the Twins need to go on a miraculous run over the final 75 games just to catch the Indians, so long as the Indians maintain their current pace.
If Cleveland puts it into a higher gear, which is entirely possible, the Twins’ chances won’t be visible with the Hubble.
Anything is possible, but the Minnesota’s playoff possibilities are extremely remote.
