Based on recent history, there’s a 50 percent chance the Twins hit a home run, or bust, with the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft.
Sixteen players have been drafted No. 1 overall since the Twins took Joe Mauer with the first pick in the 2001. Since then, there have been as many busts – six – as there have been booms, while it’s still too early to put a final judgement on No. 1 picks from 2014-16.
The best of the No. 1’s: Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Gerrit Cole, Justin Upton and Carlos Correa. The worst: Mark Appel, Tim Beckham, Luke Hochevar, Matt Bush, Delmon Young and Bryan Bullington.
There’s a 17-year-old high school right-hander from California, Hunter Greene, already being called baseball’s LeBron James – and he might be coming to Minnesota as the No. 1 pick for the Twins on June 12.
But it’s reckless to even consider the possibility of a high school baseball player impacting the MLB as quickly and with as much dominance as LeBron did in the NBA.
NBA, NFL and NHL top draft picks don’t bust as often
In the last 16 NBA drafts, only four No. 1 picks have busted: Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden and Anthony Bennett.
In the NHL, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov were three straight busts while the rest have been good or great.
JaMarcus Russell and David Carr are the only true No. 1 busts from the last 16 NFL drafts.
How good is Greene? Some scouts think he’s one of the best right-handed prep pitchers ever.
“No question, (Josh) Beckett is the first guy who comes to mind,” a scout told MLB.com. “Hunter is certainly talented, but putting it in perspective, Beckett was better than him at the same stage. Now Beckett was older and Hunter is younger, he’s 17. But at Draft time, when you have to make a decision, I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t take Beckett over Greene. Beckett had better stuff and was a better pitcher. This guy doesn’t have a real breaking ball, and Beckett had a good breaking ball.”
Analyzing the the MLB’s No. 1 picks since Joe Mauer in 2001
2016: Mickey Moniak, OF Phillies
Through 71 minor league games he’s hitting .283 with one homer and 41 RBI. He’s also struck out 45 times with only 18 walks.
2015: Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitutional, Swanson’s name and face are draped all over marketing campaigns as the face of the Atlanta Braves, whom he was traded to a few months after being drafted. He’s hitting .156 through 26 games this season.
2014: Brady Aiken, LHP, Astros
Drafted by the Astros and later traded to the Indians, Aiken has been getting pounded at Cleveland’s Class A affiliate. Through four starts this season he’s allowed 10 runs on 19 hits, 17 walks and only 10 strikeouts.
2013: Mark Appel, RHP, Astros
Now playing at the Triple-A level for the Phillies, there’s talk of moving Appel to the bullpen because he’s been so bad as a starter, according to CBS Sports.
2012: Carlos Correa, SS, Astros
Taken one spot before Byron Buxton in 2012, Correa is already in his third season at the MLB level. He hit .274 with 20 homers and 96 RBI last season and so far this season he’s hitting .265 with 3 homers and 11 RBI.
2011: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates
It only took him two years to get the big leagues and he’s been a staple for the Pirates since 2013 – and he was an All-Star in 2015.
2010: Bryce Harper, C, Nationals
He’s a beast. Enough said.
2009: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
He’s not as good as advertised in college due to injuries, but he’s still one of the bet right-handed starters in the league.
2008: Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
It took him five years to reach the big leagues and he’s been very average overall. Definitely a bust considering he was a No. 1 pick.
2007: David Price, LHP, Rays
Perennial All-Star and one of the best lefties in the game.
2006: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Royals
A career 4.98 ERA is all you need to know.
2005: Justin Upton, SS, Diamondbacks
Somehow, Upton is in his 11th MLB season and he’s still only 29 years old. He’s one of the best No. 1 picks since 2000.
2004: Matt Bush, SS, Padres
Flunked out of the league due to drug issues before finally debuting as a reliever with the Rangers in 2016. He was good last season and he’s been good again through nine appearances this season.
2003: Delmon Young, OF, Rays
Bust. Definitely a bust.
2002: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Pirates
He’s been pitching in Japan since 2011. Bust.
