Welcome to another edition of Ranking Stuff. I’ve always found it very difficult to rank quarterbacks and coaches because the gap between the No. 1 coach and No. 5 coach might be much different than between the 15th and 20th. Also calling them First Tier, Second Tier etc. isn’t very descriptive and, again, the gap between the first tier of QBs and third tier is not the same as third and fifth. Or maybe all of this is just an excuse to be more specific than we need to be. Either way, let’s dive right into it…
Coaches
Legends tier
Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton, Bill Belichick
This group needs no introduction. They have rings and their teams are going to be well coached and competitive every year almost regardless of circumstances. Even if some of these fellas are past their prime, they are probably all ending up in the Hall of Fame and are deserving of their own tier. It’s safe to say that any team that had an opening would instantly sign up to have any of them in charge.
This coach gives you a tangible advantage
Sean McVay, Nick Sirianni, Kyle Shanahan, Zac Taylor, Sean McDermott, Matt LaFleur, Mike Vrabel
These coaches are either McVay, act like McVay, know McVay or look like McVay. In seriousness, with each member of this group we can look at their performances by the numbers and show definitely where their coaching is impacting winning chances. Whether it’s McVay’s boost to his quarterbacks, Sirianni’s in-game decision making, Shanahan’s ability to have any QB play above their weight class, the way Taylor adjusted his offense last season to fit Burrow, McDermott’s defense or LaFleur’s jump in performance from Aaron Rodgers in the post-McCarthy era. Vrabel might not seem like a fit with the innovators but he has a .585 career winning percentage, which isn’t far behind Pete Carroll and Sean McVay.
These are the coaches that every team wants. They are ahead of the curve and have enough toughness in their bones to command a franchise.
Trust them to win with a good roster
Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, Ron Rivera, Kevin Stefanski
Each of this group has both won and lost enough to be somewhat questionable. Pederson is the most difficult one to put in this list but the end of his tenure in Philly was pretty rough, similar to Reich in Indy or Rivera in Carolina. Stefanski is going to get somewhat of a pass for last year but if he has three straight disappointing seasons he could be out in Cleveland. Still, each of these coaches has proven that with a beastly 2017 Eagles team or Andrew Luck or Cam Newton etc. that they can get a team into the dance.
Probably good but we need to see more
Dan Campbell, Robert Salah, Mike McDaniel, Kevin O’Connell, Brian Daboll
Every one of these fan bases is pretty excited about their coach. The Lions believe that Campbell’s rallying cries (combined with his very good offensive coordinator) can take them to the top of the division for the first time in forever. Salah’s defense nearly dragged the Jets into the playoffs. McDaniel took Tua to a way different level than he’d been in the past. O’Connell debuted with 13 wins and Daboll got the most out of Daniel Jones and won a playoff game.
What’s next, however, will determine their standing in the league. If the Lions fall short or Jets fail with Rodgers or Dolphins/Vikings/Giants don’t carry over their offensive success, then we could be talking about them in the same vein as someone like Stefanski pretty quickly.
Noobs
Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon, DeMeco Ryans
Steichen and Ryans have pretty nice setups where they will get a few years to build teams around high draft pick QBs. Gannon is in a really rough spot to start. How he navigates it will determine his path.
Gotta see it to believe it
Brandon Staley, Arthur Smith, Matt Eberflus, Dennis Allen
Staley might be a lot higher on this list if his team hadn’t blown a chance to make the playoffs in 2021 in the last game of the year and then blown a huge lead to the Jaguars in the Wild Card round. Smith took over a difficult job in the post Matt Ryan era in Atlanta. He has a chance to prove something this year. Similarly, Eberflus inherited a tanking team and can’t yet be judged. Allen’s defense was strong in his first year but it won’t be until he gets the Saints back to the playoffs with Derek Carr that he gets respect.
Probably not good
Todd Bowles, Josh McDaniels
There just isn’t much evidence that either of these accomplished coordinators are fit for head coaching jobs. McDaniels has won 17 of 45 games and Bowles 34 of 84 with the HC hat on.
Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy
Nobody seems to think McCarthy knows what he’s doing and his firing of Kellen Moore added fuel to that fire but the man has a darn impressive record. He has a Super Bowl ring, a .614 winning percentage, which is better than Bill Walsh and right behind Joe Gibbs, and he’s operated the total turnaround of the Dallas Cowboys from a mediocre team with Jason Garrett to a Super Bowl contender each of the last two seasons. His resume suggests he belongs in the legends tier, yet it still feels like his teams underachieved often and you’d get laughed out of a room if you said he’s one of the best coaches ever. I have no idea what to do with McCarthy and there’s almost nobody in pro sports like him so he gets his own tier.
Quarterbacks
Your team enters every season with Super Bowl expectations because of this guy
Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers
Three of these guys are this generation’s Elway, Marino, Kelly or Brady, Manning, Rodgers and the other guy is the last of that dying breed. Yes, Rodgers had a down year last season. No, I won’t be taking him out of this category until he’s retired.
Definitely a franchise QB who can lead an elite offense
Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford
These are the quarterbacks that everybody likes to argue about while every team struggling to find a quarterback would take any of them in a heartbeat. They are not absolutely flawless Hall of Famers but if the team around them is good then their teams will rank in the top five offensively and they will have a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl. Lawrence being in this group is indeed a projection based on his trajectory but it seems like a safe bet considering his pedigree and how he played in Year 1 under Doug Pederson.
They can execute what’s asked of them and compete under the right circumstances
Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith
These are also quarterbacks everybody likes to fight about but their teams really aren’t sure if they want them or not either. Goff, Garoppolo, Cousins, Carr and Tannehill’s original teams all let them go and Tagovailoa’s tried to woo Tom Brady and there’s still a lack of total commitment with each. The Giants didn’t pick up Jones’s fifth-year option and Smith’s contract extension was as non-committal as they could make it. Yet each one of these QBs has had their moments. They will win double-digit games or lead great offenses occasionally but when the circumstances change they aren’t going to carry their clubs. These fellas have had their moments and about once per decade one of their tier takes home a trophy (see: Flacco, Joe or Johnson, Brad).
Nobody knows but they could be good
Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, Brock Purdy/Trey Lance
They are all anybody’s guess but we’re going to find out the answer on some of them sooner than later. Fields, Love, Pickett and Purdy/Lance will be determined this year, while it might take three years for the rookie crop to be decided.
Might be washed but you could see them being good
Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson
Two years ago you would have put Wilson and Watson in your top 5-7 QBs. Now they look like bottom tier quarterbacks. Neither is so old that there’s no coming back from what happened last year but it was ugly.
It’s a long shot
Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield
Did you know Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick or Russell Wilson was a third-rounder? That’s what Howell’s and Ridder’s fan bases are using to talk themselves into those mid/late round draft picks working out. Mayfield is going on his fourth team. Vinny Testaverde and Rich Gannon would tell him to keep on grindin’.
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray
The Mike McCarthy of quarterbacks. Everyone seems to think he isn’t all that good, yet midway through 2021 he looked like an MVP candidate. He’s dealt with a terrible organization and sub-par coaching, though that doesn’t absolve him of everything when it comes to the Cards’ failures. Some quarterbacks are a product of the culture and some quarterbacks are the culture. He might be the former. Maybe a team can really win with him based on arm talent and mobility alone but that hasn’t yet been proven.
Teams
They can definitely win the Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles
This group has it all: Elite quarterbacks, superstar players on both sides of the ball, complete rosters, good coaching. They are the cream of the crop.
They are strong enough to get there if some stuff goes right
San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
Whether to put the 49ers in the first category is debatable because their coaching, weapons and defense are so strong but without a clear answer at quarterback (or a big enough sample of Brock Purdy) we can’t assume that everything will align the way it did last year. The rest of this group thinks they are in the best-of-the-best category too — and they could be — but we have seen the others go to championship Sunday or the Super Bowl. This bunch still needs to prove that they have it in them to get there.
Could be in the mix if a lotta stuff goes right
Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints
There are a lot of conversations about reasonable expectations in these cities. The dialogue goes something like:
“Is it reasonable to see them as legit Super Bowl contenders?”
“Well, if X, Y, Z, A, B, C all go right, they could do it!”
They should all expect to be in the postseason based on their quarterbacks and rosters but the weaknesses are likely to bite them eventually when they go up against Group 1 and 2.
They might be really good someday but not today
Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears
Rebuilds don’t happen overnight. Which one of these teams will be trading out of the top five to a QB-needy team? Now that’s a fun question.
Need a miracle
Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders
These teams need your prayers. They are not good, they are not horrible. Maybe they can be sorta good sometime soon but they don’t have clear answers at how to get there. Life can’t be grand for 32 of 32.
In the mix…for Caleb Williams
Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans
This list is going to grow as the season goes along or if/when there are quarterback injuries, you can bet on that.
