Dominating the Packers to start the season apparently carries quite a bit of weight in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions because after one game the Vikings have doubled their odds to win the Super Bowl.
Entering the season, FiveThirtyEight gave the Vikings a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl, which seems high considering it’s never happened in 61 years as a franchise. But Sunday’s 23-7 victory over Green Bay has doubled those odds to 6%.
It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s actually the fourth-highest chance in the NFL behind the Bills (16%), Buccaneers (13%) and Chiefs (11%). Coming in fifth is Minnesota’s Week 2 opponent, the Eagles at 5%.
The Vikings play in Philly on Monday night.
In the betting world, the Vikings also improved their Super Bowl odds, going from +3500 to +2500. That’s an improvement from having the 14th-best odds entering Week 1 to now holding the 12th-best odds, tied with the Bengals and Colts.
Despite getting thoroughly beaten by Minnesota, the Packers have +1300 odds, which is fourth best to win the Super Bowl.
If you’re wondering how FiveThirtyEight creates its odds, here’s an explainer:
How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on its likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter. Full methodology »
Meanwhile, across town at Target Field where the Twins were swept by the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota’s chances of making the MLB playoffs are down to 7.3%, according to FanGraphs.
Related: Aaron Rodgers to Justin Jefferson: ‘Best player in the game today’
Related: 5 things that stood out in the Vikings’ win over the Packers
