After a tough season on the mound, many believed the Minnesota Twins had to find an ace to solidify their rotation. They came up empty-handed, but they countered by building a deeper rotation that has started the season as one of the best in baseball.
Recent injuries to Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle will put this group to the test, however, and it could be the difference between being good enough to compete in a weak division or being legitimate playoff contenders.
It starts with how the Twins built their rotation last offseason. Minnesota already had a couple of spots filled with Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Mahle, but their biggest issue was at the back end of the rotation.
Some of the issues were tough luck as Chris Paddack and Josh Winder missed a majority of last season due to injury. The other issues were the failed free-agent signings of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, who struggled to make it past the fifth inning.
To solve this, the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo LĂłpez. Arraez has been outstanding for the Marlins with an MLB-leading .437 batting average but LĂłpez has stabilized Minnesota’s rotation, going 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA.
On top of that, the Twins’ incumbents have actually been better than they were a year ago. Gray admitted that he wasn’t ready to pitch coming off of last year’s lockout, but has responded by going 4-0 with an MLB-leading 0.77 ERA this season. Joe Ryan has also gotten off to a great start, going 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA.
The cumulative effect has built a rotation that has shown more effectiveness and has been able to pitch deeper into games.
The Twins’ rotation has also set the tone for the rest of the pitching staff. According to Statcast, the Twins rank second in weighted On-Base Average (which accounts for how a player reached base as opposed to just getting on base), expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.
The change is night and day from a year ago, when short starts taxed the bullpen and triggered a midseason spiral they couldn’t recover from. But the Twins also got off to a decent start last year before injuries came into play and their good luck thus far came to a halt with Maeda and Mahle going on the injured list this week.
Maeda’s absence may have been expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery in Sept. 2021. While there have been bright spots such as a nine-strikeout performance against the Marlins on Apr. 4, there have been setbacks including allowing 10 runs in three innings in his last start against the New York Yankees on Apr. 26.
Mahle’s injury may also have been accounted for. The right-hander was shut down for the final month of the season with shoulder trouble and his velocity fluctuated during spring training. While he’s been effective on the mound with a 1-2 record and 3.16 ERA in five starts, he was placed on the 60-day injured list with a right elbow impingement.
This opened the door for Bailey Ober, who also missed a majority of last season with a groin injury. Ober had a strong showing in spring training and almost made the rotation before being sent down and responded by going 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts for Triple-A St. Paul.
With a spot start against the Nationals last month, Ober is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in three starts with the Twins this season. That includes a stellar performance on Friday night, when Ober tossed seven shutout innings in a win over the Cleveland Guardians.
Bailey Ober, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/bndaOLYwJy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2023
Bailey Ober, Dirty 79mph Curveball (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/9ZMDfaYR9G
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2023
While Ober’s performances have been a surprise, it has come against Washington (3.62), the Kansas City Royals (3.85) and Cleveland (3.62), who all rank toward the bottom in runs scored this season. But all he can do is beat who’s in front of him, and Ober has done the job against those teams, signaling he can be good enough to anchor the back end of the rotation.
Bailey Ober is off and running in 2023, dominating bad lineups in the way he should:
4/23 vs. WSH:
5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K4/29 vs. KC:
5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K5/5 at CLE:
7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) May 6, 2023
Even if Ober’s early-season performance isn’t a fluke, the Twins still have one more spot to fill if Maeda and Mahle have a prolonged absence.
Louie Varland has made a pair of starts for the Twins but has posted a 5.91 ERA. Simeon Woods Richardson made a relief appearance earlier this year but owns a 5.79 ERA in three starts with the Saints. Jordan Balazovic has a 2.45 ERA in six appearances in St. Paul but has just one start as he works his way back from a fractured jaw.
The Twins will likely need one more of these arms to step up if they’re going to contend but they’ll likely do so against a weak schedule in the American League Central.
There will be times when the rotation is challenged – including three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (5.58 runs per game) and Toronto Blue Jays (4.70 rpg) later this month – but if the Twins can stay afloat, they should be in a position to return to the postseason.
