Spring training is just a couple of weeks away and the Minnesota Twins are hoping to be contenders in the American League Central this season. While most experts have the Twins in the mix for a division title, those hoping for a playoff win might be disappointed.
Fangraphs dropped their annual ZIPS projections this week and they have the Twins in second place in the American League Central behind the Cleveland Guardians. While that would indicate they would be contending for a playoff spot, the Twins are only projected for a record of 80-82.
The projections go deeper as they give the Twins a 30.3 percent chance of winning the division and an 8.3 percent chance at a wild card berth, giving them a 38.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. Those numbers give the Twins a chance that Lloyd Christmas would be proud of but may be disappointing considering the Twins’ offseason.
After missing out twice, the Twins were able to re-sign Carlos Correa and have several players returning from injury. With an outfield that could be very good defensively and a bullpen that has some shutdown potential, some of the close games the Twins lost a year ago could turn into wins, keeping them in the mix for a division title.
There are other factors that could keep this team out of contention. The starting rotation is stacked with good-but-not-great pitchers and it’s not a guarantee that some of the injury issues that hurt the Twins won’t appear this season.
Sonny Gray was on and off the field due to several injuries and Tyler Mahle’s shoulder remains a concern after he was shut down for the final six weeks of the regular season. Kenta Maeda is set to return from Tommy John surgery but will turn 35 in April.
Even the younger pitchers have question marks as we don’t know if Pablo López or Joe Ryan can turn into the top-of-the-rotation starter the Twins desperately need.
These concerns were reflected by ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, who had the Twins 16th in his “Way-too-early” rotation rankings.
“A solid, uninspiring group looks a lot better with Lopez in the fold,” Doolittle wrote. “Yet while you can see capable starters well into the depth chart, you also see the lack of an ace. Lopez represents Minnesota’s best combination of dominance and consistency, but as the new face in a new place, it could really use him to up the dominance ante and become the No. 1 the club needs. Maybe the Twins’ program will help Lopez do just that. If not, it’s still a rotation the Twins can win with.”
Then there is the lineup, which ranked 17th in runs scored a year ago. Joey Gallo could make up for some of the punch lost when Miguel Sanó played in just 20 games due to a knee injury but the Twins will also hope for rebound years from Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco while also praying for a healthy year from Byron Buxton.
The result is another good but not great feature for the Twins as Doolittle had them ranked 15th in his “Way-too-early” lineup rankings.
“The Twins should again feature plenty of power — and that should be the basis of their offense, as they project eighth in homer percentage and seventh in slugging. There’s not a lot of applied speed outside of Buxton and Gordon, though Royce Lewis would add to that category if he is able to get healthy and earn significant time in the majors this season. [The deal] to add Michael A. Taylor adds speed and defense, as well. In fact, a defensive outfield of Buxton, Taylor and Gallo would be as good as you can find. But we’re talking hitting, and the Twins need Buxton to stay on the field (as always) to give Correa a consistent co-anchor for the attack. Continued improvement from [Jose] Miranda could further balance that attack, which beyond these guys will rely on outperforming homer forecasts to rise above the middle of the pack at the plate.”
The Twins would argue that their farm system could make up for deficiencies but several 2021 draft picks were moved at last year’s trade deadline. With Brooks Lee, who was selected eighth overall in last year’s draft, leading the way, the Twins have a solid farm system but don’t have a clear superstar in the pipeline.
This led The Athletic’s Keith Law to place the Twins 19th in his organizational rankings.
“Injuries beset a ton of the Twins’ top prospects, including poor Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and former top-100 prospects Austin Martin and Jordan Balazovic,” Law wrote. “Rodriguez was very impressive when he played and they had a really strong 2022 draft, while also adding a top-5 prospect in Jose Salas in a trade just two weeks before publication. There’s way more position player depth and upside in this system than pitching.”
With everything falling in the middle of the pack, it’s not shocking that FanGraphs believes the Twins are a mediocre team – especially with most of last year’s team returning.
If Twins fans want to be optimistic, they can point to last year’s ZIPS projections, which had the Twins winning 86 games before winning 78 last season. A lot of that had to do with injuries, however, and unless the Twins get some above-average performances, they could be a team that could contend in a weak division but bad enough to fall short of the playoffs.
