The Vikings have proven time and time again this season that you can never count them out of a fight, but Saturday’s win stretched the credulity of even the most optimistic of fan.
How unlikely was the 39-36 overtime triumph? Well at multiple times throughout the game, the Vikings had less than a 1% chance of winning.
That’s according to NumberFire, which has broken down the odds of each team winning at various points of the game.
Interestingly, the worst odds for the Vikings to win didn’t come in the 2nd quarter when they went in at half-time 33-0 down.
They started the 3rd quarter with a 1.28% chance of winning, which reduced to 0.73% as they commenced their first drive, with KJ Osborn eventually scoring a touchdown on Kirk Cousins’ pass, at which point their chances rose to 2.32%.
But the Vikings’ lowest chance of winning – 0.69% – came after this, when Chase McLaughlin kicked a 52-yard field goal to give the Colts a 36-7 lead with 4:59 left in the 3rd quarter.
Even after the Vikings scored two more touchdowns via CJ Ham and Justin Jefferson, making it 36-21 with 12:53 left in the game, their chances of winning were still just 3.4%. Adam Thielen’s TD with 5:34 left only shifted them to 5.55%.
It wasn’t until Dalvin Cook tore off the 64-yard touchdown and Kirk Cousins completed the 2-point attempt with a throw to TJ Hockenson that the odds leapt closer to 50-50.
Came back @KirkCousins8 @dalvincook
đź“ş: @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/H7UX39X1BI
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 17, 2022
In overtime, the Vikings won the toss, but were forced to punt just inside the Colts’ half, and once again the pendulum swung back into the Colts favor.
The defense was able to stop Matt Ryan halfway down the field, and with only a couple of minutes left the odds grew in favor of a tie, only for Cousins to lead a drive into field goal range, with Greg Joseph then securing a famous victory.
Greg Joseph with the division-winner pic.twitter.com/g4dOvrlhdH
— Sean Borman (@SeanBormanNFL) December 17, 2022
