The Minnesota Vikings enter this season much different than they were a year ago. Franchise cornerstones such as Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks and Dalvin Cook are gone. Other key contributors from last year’s team like Patrick Peterson and Za’Darius Smith are also playing elsewhere. but the Vikings’ goal of being “super competitive” remains.
Just days now from the season opener against Tampa Bay, here are seven things you can count on from the Vikings this season.
1. A physical mentality on offense
Last year’s team won 13 games but they never felt dominant because of the nature of their wins. The Vikings tied an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks and while those victories were exciting, they were the result of digging themselves into a hole in the middle of the game.
This prompted the Vikings to go into the offseason with an emphasis on becoming a more physical team. Backup tight end Josh Oliver was Minnesota’s first free-agent signing and the Vikings decided to extend fullback C.J. Ham rather than cut him to create cap room.
While O’Connell’s offense mimicked the one he ran with Sean McVay in Los Angeles a year ago, the Vikings could look a lot like the San Francisco 49ers, who controlled the clock and rode their defense to victory.
If the Vikings have their way, they’ll be in the driver’s seat and it will eliminate the need for the comebacks they needed to fuel a 13-win season a year ago.
2. A more aggressive defense
Another reason the Vikings needed to come back in games was their defense. Ed Donatell’s scheme resembled something from Madden more than it did Vic Fangio’s and he was fired after one season to make way for Brian Flores.
Flores has yet to coach a game for the Vikings, but there’s already been a shift in how they play defense. Adding speed was a big priority in the offseason and rookies Mekhi Blackmon and Ivan Pace Jr. are expected to have big roles in Week 1.
Flores could also have an impact on the returning players as Harrison Smith could be used more as a blitzer, Josh Metellus could be used in a “Joker” role and Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport could be deployed both as stand-up edge rushers in 3-4 look and down linemen in a 4-3 look.
It’s unlikely that Flores will immediately turn the Vikings into a top-10 defense but unlike last year, he’s going to bring the fight to his opponents rather than sitting back and letting the opposing offense come to them.
3. Alexander Mattison as the Vikings bellcow
Another change for the Vikings is their focus in the backfield. While Cook put up numbers that may have helped you win their fantasy league, it put O’Connell in a bind as a playcaller, often closing off his playbook in second-and-long situations.
Only the Jacksonville Jaguars had more runs for no gain or negative yardage on first down last season and while the offensive line may continue to struggle, the Vikings are hoping that Mattison can be a more efficient solution.
This feels like a 180 after Mattison logged a career-low 74 carries last year but he could be in line to triple that number if things go to plan. The Vikings signed Myles Gaskin to add depth last week but Ty Chandler is unproven and Kene Nwangwu was placed on IR with a back injury.
That means this is Mattison’s backfield for the time being and the Vikings are hoping it leads to a breakout year.
4. More pressure on the interior offensive line
The Vikings will be returning all five starters across the offensive line for the first time since 2012, but it feels like more of an accomplishment by name than performance.
In no area is there more concern than the interior of the offensive line, which caused Kirk Cousins to wince in pain throughout the Netflix docuseries Quarterback.
Ed Ingram returns after allowing the most pressures of any offensive lineman in the NFL last season and Ezra Cleveland wasn’t far behind, ranking third in that category. Center Garrett Bradbury also re-signed with the Vikings in free agency but that doesn’t give anyone peace of mind after a clip of him getting tossed to the ground surfaced during training camp.
Perhaps a commitment to the running game could help this group, as they graded 14th in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus last season. But they’ll have to find a way to stop teams from penetrating up the middle – especially with Vita Vea lurking in Week 1.
5. Another monster season for Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is still waiting on his next contract but he’s still focused on becoming the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiver.
Jefferson was on pace to set the mark late last season but Jaire Alexander (and a pair of safeties over the top) derailed his chances as the Vikings headed to the playoffs. Jefferson still wound up with 1,809 yards and the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year Award, but he could be in for an even better year in 2023.
Jefferson told Vikings legend Cris Carter that he’s been working on “a couple different things” to improve his game this offseason and Carter boldly declared “The best wide receiver in football got better this offseason.”
I was really proud talking with @JJettas2 yesterday. He told me he’s worked on a couple different things to make his game even better this year 😳. The best Wide Receiver in football got better this off-season. Scary for the league 😈 pic.twitter.com/XsU5lpPN3Z
— Cris Carter (@criscarter80) July 29, 2023
While Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn could also draw attention from defenses, Jefferson is the gold standard and could reach another level this year.
6. 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns from Kirk Cousins
These numbers have become the benchmark for Cousins since he signed with the Vikings as he’s hit 4,000 yards in four seasons and 30 touchdowns in three seasons since arriving to Minnesota in 2018.
But the bigger question may be the context of those numbers as Cousins looks to secure his long-term future with the Vikings.
Cousins will enter the final year of his contract and while he made big strides a year ago, it didn’t lead to a contract extension this spring. A key to a new deal could be leading the Vikings on a run as they haven’t won multiple playoff games in a season since 1987.
There’s plenty of talent on this team but Cousins is the one that has to take them to the next level. If he can do that, it will be hard to let him walk away next spring but if he struggles, it may entice the Vikings to utilize their flexibility to find a long-term solution.
7. A division title…but nothing more
Alas, the Vikings are in a familiar spot. They’re good enough to compete for a division title but they don’t have the team to compete with some of the best teams in the conference.
A look at the NFC North confirms one part of the equation. The Vikings have some flaws but they play in a division that also has some questions. The Detroit Lions are the current favorites, but it’s possible their late-season surge was a fluke. The Green Bay Packers are ushering in the Jordan Love era and the Chicago Bears still seem a year or two away from being a factor.
This should get the Vikings into the playoffs for the second straight year but also could result in similar heartbreak. The 49ers and Eagles remain the class of the NFC and both teams arguably got better – even if Brock Purdy stumbles in his second season.
O’Connell and his staff got more out of the Vikings than he did a year ago but if they want to be legitimate contenders, they’ll have to take a giant leap forward in 2023.
