The Minnesota Twins will open their American League Divisional Series against the Houston Astros on Saturday afternoon and there is plenty on the line for a team that hasn’t reached the ALCS since 2002.
The Twins cruised into the ALDS after sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in a best-of-three Wild Card Series earlier this week but they’ll have a tougher task against the Astros, who are the defending World Series Champions.
The Twins have some momentum on their side but here are five things that will determine whether they can win their series with the Astros.
1. The continuation of ‘Playoff’ Carlos Correa
When Carlos Correa signed in the spring of 2022, one of the biggest benefits was his playoff track record. While the Twins couldn’t make the playoffs in his first season and the star shortstop struggled in the regular season, he is a different player once the calendar turns to October.
In 81 career postseason games, Correa is hitting .276/.348/.503. His 18 career postseason home runs rank seventh all-time and his 60 RBI rank sixth all-time trailing legends such as Bernie Williams (80 RBI), Manny Ramirez (78 RBI), David Justice (63), Derek Jeter (61) and David Ortiz (61).
But more than statistics, Correa may have added to his legend thanks to his defense against the Blue Jays. Correa pulled off a highlight-worthy play to throw out Bo Bichette at home plate to help the Twins to win Game 1 and he pulled off another defensive gem in Game 2, teaming with Sonny Gray to pick off Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to protect a 2-0 lead in the fifth inning.
This puts Correa in a big spot as he’ll go against the team that made him a postseason legend – including a World Series Championship in 2017. If the Twins are to defeat the Astros, they’ll need more “Playoff Carlos” moments throughout the series.
2. Stealing Game 1 or Game 2 in Houston
The Twins will have to win a game in Houston if they want to win the series. But winning one of the first two games could help turn the series on its head.
Some may have believed it was a surprise that the Twins are sending Bailey Ober to the mound as the Game 1 starter, but he’s been solid since returning from a brief minor league stint, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over 21.2 innings in his last four starts. The Twins also have a solid Plan B if they need it with former starters Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack in the bullpen.
But if the Twins can’t come away with a win in Game 1, they’ll have Pablo López on the mound in Game 2 and have a legitimate chance to steal home-field advantage for the rest of the series.
The noise at Target Field was a huge storyline in the Wild Card series with Toronto and will likely be amplified for the Twins’ first ALDS home game since 2019. If they can come home tied at 1-1, they’ll have Sonny Gray on the mound in Game 3 and could have a chance to end the series at home in Game 4.
3. The lineup producing at the plate
While the Twins were dominant on the mound against the Blue Jays, their offense left room for improvement. The Twins scored just five runs in the two-game Wild Card series, which extended their history of being unable to produce in the postseason dating back to Game 4 of the 2004 ALDS.
That game – a 6-5 loss to the New York Yankees – was the last time the Twins scored five or more runs in a postseason game and the Twins have averaged just 2.23 runs per game over their last 17 playoff games.
While the Twins did enough to win the series, they struggled with their opportunities to break the game open, going 1-for-10 with three strikeouts with runners in scoring position. With the Astros ranking fifth this season with 5.1 runs per game, the Twins lineup will have to be at its best to win the series.
4. The Twins bullpen
The Twins’ bullpen was one of the biggest topics of conversation this season but a revamped group was lights out during a sweep over the Blue Jays.
Louie Varland, Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran were able to slam the door by appearing in both games and Twins fans got a glimpse of Brock Stewart’s dominance after striking out a pair of batters in one scoreless inning in Game 2.
While the Twins bullpen held up, it remains to be seen how some of the other pitchers could be used including converted starters such as Maeda and Paddack, and how the strategy will change if they’re facing a deficit.
The bottom line is the Twins will need their bullpen to be at their best and that means containing a lethal Astros lineup late in games.
5. Rocco Baldelli’s managerial decisions
The Twins were on the right end of a bad managerial decision as Blue Jays manager John Schneider pulled Jose Berrīos after he cruised through the first three innings in Game 2. While Twins fans cackled as Correa drove in a pair of runs to fuel a 2-0 victory, the script could easily be flipped in the series with the Astros.
Consider that Baldelli pulled Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner out of the lineup when Schneider made the move to left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. While the Twins still managed to push together a pair of runs, the moves took two of their biggest power bats and Wallner’s arm out of the game in the fourth inning.
Again, the moves worked out as the Twins won the game but the trigger-happy platoon splits that Baldelli used throughout the season continued during the Wild Card series.
These moves could work out in the Twins’ favor in the ALDS but they will be under a tighter microscope as Minnesota looks to pull off the upset.
