It’s almost six months to the day when the MLB regular season comes to an end. For the Twins, that day will be Oct. 1 when they play their 162nd game of the season against the Rockies in Colorado.
By then, it may be crystal clear who the Twins will host in the first round of the playoffs. Of course, that’s under the assumption that the Twins will win the AL Central and finish with a worse record than the winners of the AL East and AL West. In such a scenario, the Twins would be the No. 3 seed and face the last wild card team while the AL East and West champs receive a bye into the second round.
There are three teams currently fighting for the last wild card spot: Toronto, Seattle and Boston. Other teams like the Astros and Rays, who are each respectively in second place in their divisions, could falter and wind up as the last wild card, but that appears less than likely so we’ll focus on the Blue Jays, Mariners and Red Sox for the sake of simplicity.
Boston is 3.5 games behind Toronto for the final wild card (entering play Friday). That puts them in the hole, and their odds worsen because they have the second hardest remaining schedule in the majors, according to Tankathon.
Toronto is a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final wild card. Who has the harder schedule between the Jays and Mariners? It’s pretty much a wash, with Toronto’s remaining opponents owning a .490 win percentage compared to .489 for Seattle’s opponents.
How have the Twins done this season against the Blue Jays, Mariners and Red Sox? Minnesota is 3-3 against the Blue Jays; 3-4 against the Mariners; and 3-4 against the Red Sox.
The good news is that winning the AL Central will ensure the Twins host all three games of a best-of-three wild card series.
